Prévision communautaire actuelle
Oui 80%
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41
Type de question
binary
Méthodologie
Play-money forecasting platform
Type de source
Prévision
Données du marché
Mis à jour il y a 52 minutes
En retard12 août 25, 00:57 UTC31 déc. 35, 23:59 UTC
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Marchés Associés
Questions liées pour le contexte, et non une comparaison de contrats équivalents.
Will a large language model beat a super grandmaster playing chess by EOY 2028?
Manifold MarketsWill a large language model beat a super grandmaster playing chess by EOY 2028?
Manifold MarketsWill a large language model beat a super grandmaster playing chess by EOY 2028?
Manifold MarketsWill a subcubic matrix multiplication algorithm be used for the primary training workload of a SOTA large-language model
Manifold MarketsWill an LLM beat a grandmaster in chess?
KalshiSuperhuman mathematical problem solving before 2030, assuming no AGI yet?
Manifold MarketsRègles
This market will resolve if a chess super grandmaster is beaten in a match by a large language model before 2036.
- The point of this market is to predict if accessible LLMs will become smarter than expert humans.
- The chosen medium for this test is chess.
- Constraints:
- Human chess player must have a classical ELO of over 2700
- Human does not need to be blindfolded.
