Quelles sont les probabilités actuelles pour Will a large language model beat a super grandmaster playing chess by EOY 2028? ?

Manifold Markets cote Yes à 60.2% au 28 octobre 2026.

Will a large language model beat a super grandmaster playing chess by EOY 2028?

Manifold MarketsSans KYCDonnées de résolution vérifiéesAssez bien calibré

Prévision communautaire actuelle

Oui 60.2%

Prévisionnistes

Type de question

binary

Méthodologie

Play-money forecasting platform

Type de source

Prévision

Données du marché

Mis à jour il y a 23 minutes

1 août 26, 16:22 UTC1 janv. 29, 02:59 UTC

Tendances

Résultat24hProbabilité

Règles

If a large language models beats a super grandmaster (Classic elo of above 2,700) while playing blind chess by 2028, this market resolves to YES.

I will ignore fun games, at my discretion.
(Say a game where Hiraku loses to ChatGPT because he played the Bongcloud)
Some clarification (28th Mar 2023): This market grew fast with a unclear description.
My idea is to check whether a general intelligence can play chess, without being created specifically for doing so (like humans aren't chess playing machines).
Some previous comments I did.