Will a human from any nation other than the United States land on the Moon and successfully return by the end of 2030?
One-OffEspace4a
Manifold MarketsSans KYCDonnées de résolution vérifiéesAssez bien calibréPrévision communautaire actuelleOui 61.9%
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26
Type de question
binary
Méthodologie
Play-money forecasting platform
Type de source
Prévision
Données du marché
Mis à jour il y a 6 heures
Obsolète13 nov. 23, 23:39 UTC2 janv. 31, 07:59 UTC
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Questions liées pour le contexte, et non une comparaison de contrats équivalents.
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FutuurRègles
Resolution Criteria: This question will be resolved as "Yes" if, by 11:59 PM (UTC) on December 31, 2030, at least one human being from any country (other than those who participated in the Apollo missions) has landed on the Moon and then returned safely to Earth.
- To wit, will any non-American land on the moon and return by the end of 2030?
- Clarification on 'Successfully Return' and Exclusion of Apollo Missions: For the question to resolve as "Yes," the astronaut(s) must complete a round trip, meaning they must land on the lunar surface and then physically return to Earth alive.
- This question specifically pertains to missions occurring after the Apollo program, which concluded in the 20th century.
- Verification Sources: The resolution will be based on official statements from the respective space agency or government, verified news reports, or live coverage.
- Updated caveat: If I wind down my activity on Manifold or become seriously ill, I'll let moderators resolve this.
