Manifold MarketsSans KYCDonnées de résolution vérifiéesAssez bien calibréPrévision communautaire actuelleNon 36.8%En tête parmi 4 options
Prévisionnistes
7
Type de question
multiple choice
Méthodologie
Play-money forecasting platform
Type de source
Prévision
Variation 7j
0.0 pts
Données du marché
Mis à jour il y a 15 heures
Obsolète22 août 25, 03:06 UTC31 déc. 30, 23:59 UTC
Tendances
Marchés Associés
Questions liées pour le contexte, et non une comparaison de contrats équivalents.
What words will the 'name' of the first Human Landing System to land on the moon include?
Manifold MarketsWill a Large Language Model be deployed on a mission to land on a moon or planet by the end of 2030?
Manifold MarketsWill The 2028 Democratic Ticket Include A Woman?
Manifold MarketsWill the 21st Politburo of the Chinese Communist Party, to be selected in 2027, include at least one woman?
Manifold MarketsWill Blue Origin land on the moon before SpaceX?
KalshiSpaceX Starship manned flight to successfully land on the moon by the end of 2026?
FutuurRègles
Resolution criteria
- This resolves on China’s first crewed mission that successfully lands taikonauts on the lunar surface (soft landing achieved; mere lunar orbit or aborts don’t count).
- Outcome is determined from official post-mission reports/broadcasts by CMSA/Xinhua/CCTV; if unavailable, reputable wire services (Reuters/AP) may be used.
- “the named outcome” if a woman is the first to step onto the lunar surface on that mission, per official timeline/coverage.
- “the named outcome” if a woman steps onto the surface after a male crewmate from the same mission has already done so.
- “the named outcome” if a woman is assigned to that mission but does not ride the lander and stays in lunar orbit.
