Manifold MarketsSans KYCDonnées de résolution vérifiéesAssez bien calibréPrévision communautaire actuelleNon 59%
Prévisionnistes
4
Type de question
binary
Méthodologie
Play-money forecasting platform
Type de source
Prévision
Données du marché
Mis à jour il y a 58 minutes
En retard11 août 26, 01:35 UTC31 déc. 26, 23:59 UTC
Tendances
Marchés Associés
Questions liées pour le contexte, et non une comparaison de contrats équivalents.
Will a court block paid early access to Trump's Truth Social posts?
KalshiWill a court block the FCC's ABC license review in 2026?
KalshiWill the US pass a federal AI law before Dec 31, 2026?
Manifold MarketsWill the ICE agents who shot Alex Pretti be charged in any federal court?
Manifold MarketsWill Nicolás Maduro be convicted in a U.S. federal court before January 1, 2027?
Manifold MarketsWill "What SB 53, California’s new AI law, does" make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2025 Annual Review?
Manifold MarketsRègles
Resolves YES if: Before 12:00 AM ET January 1, 2027, any U.S. federal court issues an order enjoining enforcement of, or declaring unenforceable, in whole or in substantial part, at least one of these five statutes: (1) Colorado AI Act (SB 24-205, as amended/replaced by SB 26-189), (2) California SB 53 (Transparency in Frontier AI Act), (3) New York RAISE Act, (4) Texas TRAIGA, (5) Illinois HB 3773.
- • Counts: preliminary injunction, permanent injunction, TRO, or declaratory judgment of unconstitutionality/preemption, from any federal district or appellate court, in any case (xAI v.
- Weiser, a DOJ Task Force suit, or a new industry/trade-group suit).
- • “Substantial part” = the order blocks at least one core operative obligation (e.g., the algorithmic-discrimination duties, frontier transparency/reporting requirements), not merely a severable ancillary provision like a notice formatting rule.
- Resolver judgment on edge cases, stated in advance.
- • Does NOT count: stays pending appeal of a state’s own enforcement, voluntary non-enforcement agreements, state legislative repeal/delay, or rulings on standing/venue without merits relief.
