Manifold MarketsSans KYCDonnées de résolution vérifiéesAssez bien calibréPrévision communautaire actuelleOui 56.6%
Prévisionnistes
14
Type de question
binary
Méthodologie
Play-money forecasting platform
Type de source
Prévision
Données du marché
Mis à jour il y a 1 heure
En retard29 mars 26, 14:55 UTC15 janv. 27, 00:00 UTC
Tendances
Marchés Associés
Questions liées pour le contexte, et non une comparaison de contrats équivalents.
Will a federal court block a major state AI law before 2027?
Manifold MarketsFederal AI preemption passes by January 3, 2027?
Manifold MarketsComprehensive federal AI legislation in 2026?
KalshiWill any G7 country pass a mandatory AI-generated content labeling law before Dec 31, 2026?
Manifold MarketsWill an AI professional-impersonation bill become law in New York?
KalshiU.S. enacts AI safety bill before 2027?
PolymarketRègles
Resolution criteria (strict):
- Resolves YES if, on or before 2026-12-31 23:59:59 ET, the U.S. President signs into law a federal statute where AI is a primary subject.
- Executive orders, agency guidance, draft bills, committee approvals, or state laws do NOT count.
- If no qualifying federal AI statute is signed by deadline, resolves NO.
- Primary sources:
- Congress.gov final bill status
Marchés ouverts
PoliticsPOLYMARKETPresidential Election Winner 2028
- JD Vance-0.1pt25%
- Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez13%
- Jon Ossoff12%
+49 résultats de plus
- Volume total
- 605,7 M €
- Volume 24h
- 697,7 k €
POLYMARKETBrazil Presidential Election
- Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva-6.0pt53%
- Flávio Bolsonaro+5.5pt45%
- Renan Santos-0.2pt1%
+16 résultats de plus
POLYMARKETRepublican Presidential Nominee 2028
- J.D. Vance50%
- Marco Rubio-0.1pt20%
- Tucker Carlson3%
+39 résultats de plus
- Volume total
- 603,2 M €
KALSHI2028 Democratic presidential nominee
- Jon Ossoff17%
- Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez16%
- Gavin Newsom14%
+45 résultats de plus
- Volume total
- 183,4 M €
- Volume 24h
- 471,3 k €
POLYMARKETWhich party will gain most seats in Russian Parliamentary Election?
- United Russia (ER)+5.5pt74.3%
- New People (NL)-3.8pt21.8%
- Liberal Democratic Party of Russia (LDPR)-1.1pt3%
POLYMARKETNext French Presidential Election
- Marine Le Pen+0.3pt36.4%
- Édouard Philippe+2.0pt31.3%
- Jean-Luc Mélenchon-1.0pt12.1%
+38 résultats de plus
- US announces end of Iranian blockade by which date?
- Which party will win the U.S. House?
- 2028 Republican presidential nominee
- Democratic Presidential Nominee 2028
- Russia Parliamentary Election Winner
- New Hampshire Democratic Senate nominee?
- Clarity Act (H.R.3633) signed into law in 2026?
- Prime Minister of Israel after the next election?
- South Carolina Senate winner?
- Friedrich Merz out as Chancellor of Germany before 2027?
Questions fréquentes
- Quelles sont les probabilités actuelles pour Will the US pass a federal AI law before Dec 31, 2026? ?
- Manifold Markets cote Yes à 57% au 8 septembre 2026.
- Quand Will the US pass a federal AI law before Dec 31, 2026? sera-t-il résolu ?
- Will the US pass a federal AI law before Dec 31, 2026? doit être résolu le 15 janvier 2027.
- Comment Will the US pass a federal AI law before Dec 31, 2026? est-il réglé ?
- Manifold Markets règle ce marché comme suit : Resolution criteria (strict):