Manifold MarketsSans KYCDonnées de résolution vérifiéesAssez bien calibréPrévision communautaire actuelleNobody 37.4%En tête parmi 5 options
Prévisionnistes
5
Type de question
multiple choice
Méthodologie
Play-money forecasting platform
Type de source
Prévision
Variation 7j
0.0 pts
Données du marché
Mis à jour il y a 3 heures
Obsolète2 oct. 25, 17:42 UTC2 oct. 26, 17:42 UTC
Tendances
Marchés Associés
Questions liées pour le contexte, et non une comparaison de contrats équivalents.
Will Robin Hanson win the Nobel Prize for Economics before his death?
Manifold MarketsRobin Hanson wins a Nobel Prize in Economics?
Manifold MarketsWill Robin Hanson ever turn down anyone who wants to talk to him about prediction markets?
Manifold MarketsWhich of these cryptocurrencies will have a positive return in 2026?
KalshiWhat price will Chainlink hit in 2026?
PolymarketWhat price will Chainlink hit in September?
PolymarketRègles
I may or may not have an interview with Robin Hanson coming up.
- I created a prediction market about whether or not he would accept my request to be the subject of an interview about being the subject of a prediction market.
- And I want a sponsor for my youtube channel, so I put a public stripe link on twitter around the conversation to see if manifold would see the value.
- https://x.com/leo_guinan/status/1973804489401311452
- Here's my youtube channel: https://www.youtube.com/@ideasupplychain
Marchés ouverts
ChainlinkKALSHIWhich of these cryptocurrencies will have a positive return in 2026?
- Chainlink (LINK)-12.0pt41%
- Bitcoin (BTC)-1.0pt37%
- Solana (SOL)-4.0pt30%
+7 résultats de plus
- Volume total
- 593,6 k €
- Volume 24h
- 1,9 k €
POLYMARKETWhat price will Chainlink hit in 2026?
- ↑ 14+8.4pt100%
- ↓ 12+22.4pt100%
- ↓ 10+32.5pt100%
+12 résultats de plus
POLYMARKETWhat price will Chainlink hit in September?
- ↑ 12+48.0pt100%
- ↑ 1451%
- ↓ 1051%
+9 résultats de plus
- Volume total
MANIFOLD MARKETSExit valuation of Haven (YC S23)?
- Less than $10M or bankrupt64.7%
- $10M - $100M12.6%
- $100M - $1B12.6%
+1 résultats de plus
- Volume total
- 43 €
- Volume 24h
MANIFOLD MARKETSWill the Fehmarn Belt fixed link between Denmark and Germany be completed by 2030?
- No86%
- Yes14%
- Volume total
- 271,5 €
- Volume 24h
- —
MANIFOLD MARKETSExit valuation of Chatter (YC S23)?
- $10M - $100M45.4%
- Less than $10M or bankrupt44.5%
- $100M - $1B6.8%
+1 résultats de plus
- Volume total
- 101,4 €
- Volume 24h
- Of the top 18 jobs in the US in the year 2022, which one will be first to lose at least 1/2 of its workers?
- In what year will humans have more sex with robots than with other humans
- Will Link speak in the Zelda movie?
- Who DOSsed Finnish Defence Ministry web pages? (suggest answers, may take time to resolve)
- Days without sunspots in 2026.
- 🌐Which social platforms will reach 500M or more users by the end of 2030? [ADD RESPONSES]
- Who is the unidentified person on the cover of Sgt. Pepper's Lonely Hearts Club Band?
- Messi vs Ronaldo: who's gonna have more career goals? 🥅
- Manifold Meta-Futarchy 2026
- When will consumer AI be able to read me a book
Questions fréquentes
- Quelles sont les probabilités actuelles pour Who Will Sponsor My Episode for $25K With Robin Hanson if It Exists? ?
- Manifold Markets cote Nobody à 37% au 8 septembre 2026.
- Quand Who Will Sponsor My Episode for $25K With Robin Hanson if It Exists? sera-t-il résolu ?
- Who Will Sponsor My Episode for $25K With Robin Hanson if It Exists? doit être résolu le 2 octobre 2026.
- Comment Who Will Sponsor My Episode for $25K With Robin Hanson if It Exists? est-il réglé ?
- Manifold Markets règle ce marché comme suit : I may or may not have an interview with Robin Hanson coming up.