Prévision communautaire actuelle
Before Jan 1, 2029 50%En tête parmi 4 options
Prévisionnistes
8
Type de question
multiple choice
Méthodologie
Play-money forecasting platform
Type de source
Prévision
Variation 7j
0.0 pts
Données du marché
Mis à jour il y a 5 heures
Obsolète25 avr. 26, 16:40 UTC1 janv. 30, 17:39 UTC
Tendances
Marchés Associés
Questions liées pour le contexte, et non une comparaison de contrats équivalents.
By 2029, will any AI be able to read a novel and reliably answer questions about it? (Gary Marcus benchmark #2)
Manifold MarketsAble to read an article for a very small charge on New York Times by end of 2027?
Manifold MarketsIn 2029, will any AI be able to take an arbitrary proof in the mathematical literature and translate it into a form suitable for symbolic verification? (Gary Marcus benchmark #5)
Manifold MarketsWhich of these cryptocurrencies will have a positive return in 2026?
KalshiWhat price will Chainlink hit in 2026?
PolymarketWhat price will Chainlink hit in September?
PolymarketRègles
When will any publicly available consumer AI assistant (ChatGPT, Claude, Gemini, etc) be able to look up a public domain book of reasonable length (~100k words) and read it (all of it) aloud to me in one shot.
- A few clarifications:
- Multiple options can resolve yes
- This applies to assistants where you don’t self-host models on your own GPUs
- It should be able to do this after a single request from the user, without requiring repeated prompts (feel free to prompt engineer that starting prompt as much as you'd like).
- In other words, the audio it plays should be like what would happen if you pressed play at the start of an audiobook
Marchés ouverts
ChainlinkKALSHIWhich of these cryptocurrencies will have a positive return in 2026?
- Chainlink (LINK)-6.0pt44%
- Ethereum (ETH)+2.0pt41%
- Bitcoin (BTC)+1.0pt37%
+7 résultats de plus
- Volume total
- 592,5 k €
- Volume 24h
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POLYMARKETWhat price will Chainlink hit in 2026?
- ↑ 14+8.4pt100%
- ↓ 12+22.4pt100%
- ↓ 10+32.5pt100%
+12 résultats de plus
POLYMARKETWhat price will Chainlink hit in September?
- ↑ 12+48.0pt100%
- ↑ 14-0.5pt51%
- ↓ 1051%
+9 résultats de plus
MANIFOLD MARKETSWho is the unidentified person on the cover of Sgt. Pepper's Lonely Hearts Club Band?
- Screamin' Jay Hawkins25.1%
- Charlie Chaplin25.1%
- Amelia Earhart24.6%
+1 résultats de plus
- Volume total
- 18,1 €
- Volume 24h
MANIFOLD MARKETSMessi vs Ronaldo: who's gonna have more career goals? 🥅
- Cristiano Ronaldo86.2%
- Leo Messi13.8%
- Volume total
- 364,5 €
- Volume 24h
- —
MANIFOLD MARKETSManifold Meta-Futarchy 2026
- https://manifold.markets/Stralor/manifold-the-site-2026-prop-bets43%
- https://manifold.markets/ian/we-sell-2x-the-boosts-if-a-boost-gi12.1%
- https://manifold.markets/Stralor/how-much-mana-revenue-will-manifold11.8%
- Volume total
- 2,4 k €
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Questions fréquentes
- Quelles sont les probabilités actuelles pour When will consumer AI be able to read me a book ?
- Manifold Markets cote Before Jan 1, 2029 à 50% au 8 septembre 2026.
- Quand When will consumer AI be able to read me a book sera-t-il résolu ?
- When will consumer AI be able to read me a book doit être résolu le 1 janvier 2030.
- Comment When will consumer AI be able to read me a book est-il réglé ?
- Manifold Markets règle ce marché comme suit : When will any publicly available consumer AI assistant (ChatGPT, Claude, Gemini, etc) be able to look up a public domain book of reasonable length (~100k words) and read it (all of it) aloud to me in one shot.