Prévision communautaire actuelle
Before Jan 1, 2029 50%En tête parmi 4 options
Prévisionnistes
8
Type de question
multiple choice
Méthodologie
Play-money forecasting platform
Type de source
Prévision
Variation 7j
0.0 pts
Données du marché
Mis à jour il y a 13 heures
Obsolète25 avr. 26, 16:40 UTC1 janv. 30, 17:39 UTC
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Questions liées pour le contexte, et non une comparaison de contrats équivalents.
By 2029, will any AI be able to read a novel and reliably answer questions about it? (Gary Marcus benchmark #2)
Manifold MarketsWill AI be able to read minds by 2030?
Manifold Markets[Carlini questions] Majority of consumer AI applications will operate autonomously on multi-step tasks by year
Manifold MarketsAble to read an article for a very small charge on New York Times by end of 2027?
Manifold MarketsWhich of these outcomes of the NYT vs. OpenAI lawsuit will occur?
Manifold MarketsWho will ever rank #1 in LMSYS Chatbot Arena Text Leaderboard in 2026?
Manifold MarketsRègles
When will any publicly available consumer AI assistant (ChatGPT, Claude, Gemini, etc) be able to look up a public domain book of reasonable length (~100k words) and read it (all of it) aloud to me in one shot.
- A few clarifications:
- Multiple options can resolve yes
- This applies to assistants where you don’t self-host models on your own GPUs
- It should be able to do this after a single request from the user, without requiring repeated prompts (feel free to prompt engineer that starting prompt as much as you'd like).
- In other words, the audio it plays should be like what would happen if you pressed play at the start of an audiobook
