Manifold MarketsSans KYCDonnées de résolution vérifiéesAssez bien calibréPrévision communautaire actuelleOther 32.2%En tête parmi 8 options
Prévisionnistes
25
Type de question
multiple choice
Méthodologie
Play-money forecasting platform
Type de source
Prévision
Variation 7j
0.0 pts
Données du marché
Mis à jour il y a 11 heures
Obsolète9 avr. 26, 20:18 UTC31 déc. 30, 21:24 UTC
Tendances
Marchés Associés
Questions liées pour le contexte, et non une comparaison de contrats équivalents.
Will Dwarkesh do a podcast with Satoshi Nakamoto before 2031?
Manifold MarketsWill the identity of Satoshi Nakamoto be revealed before 2031?
Manifold MarketsNothing Ever Happens: Satoshi Nakamoto
PolymarketWill any of the following be confirmed to be Satoshi Nakamoto?
Manifold MarketsWill CMI declare a Millennium Prize Problem solved by which date?
PolymarketAnthropic IPO by which date?
PolymarketRègles
Resolves when I (deferring heavily to other Manifold mods/superusers who are paying more attention to this subject) am ~90% confident that Satoshi Nakamoto has been identified.
- If Satoshi is revealed to be a collaboration between multiple people, it resolves roughly to the best estimate of the % that each are responsible for Satoshi's identity.
- I will also defer to consensus reporting, the Wikipedia page, etc. For example, if the Wiki page decisively lists one individual as Satoshi Nakamoto, that would likely be sufficient to resolve, and if the NYT, WSJ, WaPo, and Guardian all put out articles saying that the drama is over and Satoshi's identity has been conclusively revealed (as the same person), that would also probably be sufficient to resolve.
- Market will be extended indefinitely until more definitive evidence emerges.
- I think there are reasons to believe that AI will be able to unearth convincing evidence within a few years, but I ultimately don't have a horse in this race.
- I've only loosely followed the drama.
Marchés ouverts
AIPOLYMARKETWill CMI declare a Millennium Prize Problem solved by which date?
- 2028-11.0pt62.4%
- 2027-3.5pt29.7%
- 2026-1.5pt7.9%
- Volume total
- 241,3 k €
- Volume 24h
- 128 k €
POLYMARKETAnthropic IPO by which date?
- December 31,-2.0pt88%
- December 15,86%
- November 30,+1.0pt85%
+7 résultats de plus
- Volume total
KALSHIBest AI at the end of 2026?
- Claude-1.7pt58.8%
- ChatGPT-2.1pt23.5%
- Grok+2.3pt7.8%
+5 résultats de plus
- Volume total
- 9,1 M €
KALSHITop AI model in September?
- claude-fable-5.1-max+1.0pt72%
- claude-opus-5-max+3.0pt10%
- claude-opus-4-6-thinking+1.0pt5%
+3 résultats de plus
- Volume total
KALSHIWhen will Anthropic officially announce an IPO?
- Before Apr 1, 2027+5.0pt97%
- Before Jan 1, 2027+5.0pt96%
- Before Mar 1, 2027-1.0pt94%
+9 résultats de plus
KALSHIBest AI in Sep 2026?
- Claude+1.0pt80.6%
- ChatGPT-2.0pt10.2%
- Gemini+1.0pt2.8%
+4 résultats de plus
- Volume total
- 349,4 k €
- Gemini 4.0 released by which date?
- OpenAI’s Astra Model: Text Arena Debut?
- Tencent market share this week
- Anthropic market share this week
- Anthropic IPO Closing Market Cap
- OpenAI market share this week
- Best Chinese AI Company end of September?
- Will Anthropic’s valuation hit __ by December 31?
- Which company has best AI model end of 2026?
- Most popular AI this week
- DeepSeek market share this week
Questions fréquentes
- Quelles sont les probabilités actuelles pour Who is Satoshi Nakamoto? (resolves at 90% confidence) ?
- Manifold Markets cote Other à 32% au 9 septembre 2026.
- Quand Who is Satoshi Nakamoto? (resolves at 90% confidence) sera-t-il résolu ?
- Who is Satoshi Nakamoto? (resolves at 90% confidence) doit être résolu le 31 décembre 2030.
- Comment Who is Satoshi Nakamoto? (resolves at 90% confidence) est-il réglé ?
- Manifold Markets règle ce marché comme suit : Resolves when I (deferring heavily to other Manifold mods/superusers who are paying more attention to this subject) am ~90% confident that Satoshi Nakamoto has been identified.