Manifold MarketsSans KYCDonnées de résolution vérifiéesBien calibréPrévision communautaire actuelleOther 32.2%En tête parmi 8 options
Prévisionnistes
25
Type de question
multiple choice
Méthodologie
Play-money forecasting platform
Type de source
Prévision
Variation 7j
0.0 pts
Données du marché
Mis à jour il y a 10 heures
Obsolète9 avr. 26, 20:18 UTC31 déc. 30, 21:24 UTC
Tendances
Marchés Associés
Questions liées pour le contexte, et non une comparaison de contrats équivalents.
Will Dwarkesh do a podcast with Satoshi Nakamoto before 2031?
Manifold MarketsWill the identity of Satoshi Nakamoto be revealed before 2031?
Manifold MarketsWill Forbes put Satoshi Nakamoto on The World's Billionaires list by 2030?
Manifold MarketsNothing Ever Happens: Satoshi Nakamoto
PolymarketWill any of the following be confirmed to be Satoshi Nakamoto?
Manifold MarketsBest AI at the end of 2026?
KalshiRègles
Resolves when I (deferring heavily to other Manifold mods/superusers who are paying more attention to this subject) am ~90% confident that Satoshi Nakamoto has been identified.
- If Satoshi is revealed to be a collaboration between multiple people, it resolves roughly to the best estimate of the % that each are responsible for Satoshi's identity.
- I will also defer to consensus reporting, the Wikipedia page, etc. For example, if the Wiki page decisively lists one individual as Satoshi Nakamoto, that would likely be sufficient to resolve, and if the NYT, WSJ, WaPo, and Guardian all put out articles saying that the drama is over and Satoshi's identity has been conclusively revealed (as the same person), that would also probably be sufficient to resolve.
- Market will be extended indefinitely until more definitive evidence emerges.
- I think there are reasons to believe that AI will be able to unearth convincing evidence within a few years, but I ultimately don't have a horse in this race.
- I've only loosely followed the drama.