Manifold MarketsSans KYCDonnées de résolution vérifiéesAssez bien calibréPrévision communautaire actuelle
Non 74%
Prévisionnistes
19
Type de question
binary
Méthodologie
Play-money forecasting platform
Type de source
Prévision
Données du marché
Mis à jour il y a 6 heures
Obsolète14 nov. 24, 09:08 UTC8 janv. 31, 22:59 UTC
Tendances
Marchés Associés
Questions liées pour le contexte, et non une comparaison de contrats équivalents.
Who is Satoshi Nakamoto? (resolves at 90% confidence)
Manifold MarketsWill the identity of Satoshi Nakamoto be revealed before 2031?
Manifold MarketsNothing Ever Happens: Satoshi Nakamoto
PolymarketWill any of the following be confirmed to be Satoshi Nakamoto?
Manifold Markets$LAPTOP FDV above ___ one day after launch?
PolymarketBTC price on Sep 9, 2026 at 5pm EDT?
KalshiRègles
Resolves as YES if there is strong evidence that Satoshi Nakamoto has appeared on a published video/audio podcast with Dwarkesh Patel before January 1st 2031.
Marchés ouverts
CryptoPOLYMARKETBitcoin above ___ on September 9?
- 72,000+0.4pt100%
- 74,000+1.4pt100%
- 68,000100%
+8 résultats de plus
- Volume total
- 936 k €
- Volume 24h
- 714,5 k €
POLYMARKET$LAPTOP FDV above ___ one day after launch?
- $10M+1.4pt98%
- $25M+0.8pt95%
- $50M+10.0pt95%
+4 résultats de plus
KALSHIBTC price on Sep 9, 2026 at 5pm EDT?
- $76,250 or above99%
- $75,000 or above99%
- $77,000 or above98%
+77 résultats de plus
- Volume total
- 567,2 k €
- Volume 24h
- 564,3 k €
KALSHIBTC 15 min · $79,365.65 target
- No84%
- Yes16%
- Volume total
- 1,1 M €
- Volume 24h
- 482,8 k €
KALSHIBTC price on Sep 9, 2026 at 9am EDT?
- $78,700 or above99%
- $78,400 or above99%
- $78,600 or above99%
+97 résultats de plus
- Volume total
- 403 k €
- Volume 24h
- 382,6 k €
KALSHIBTC price on Sep 11, 2026 at 5pm EDT?
- $72,500 or above+3.0pt99%
- $69,000 or above99%
- $68,500 or above+1.0pt98%
+47 résultats de plus
- Volume total
- 1,2 M €
- What price will Bitcoin hit in September?
- Ethereum above ___ on September 9?
- Clarity Act (H.R.3633) signed into law in 2026?
- What price will Bitcoin hit in 2026?
- What price will Bitcoin hit September 7-13?
- Bitcoin above ___ on September 11?
- Bitcoin above ___ on September 10?
- Will the Clarity Act become law?
- Bitcoin all time high by which date?
- Will Base launch a token by ___ ?
Questions fréquentes
- Quelles sont les probabilités actuelles pour Will Dwarkesh do a podcast with Satoshi Nakamoto before 2031? ?
- Manifold Markets cote No à 74% au 9 septembre 2026.
- Quand Will Dwarkesh do a podcast with Satoshi Nakamoto before 2031? sera-t-il résolu ?
- Will Dwarkesh do a podcast with Satoshi Nakamoto before 2031? doit être résolu le 8 janvier 2031.
- Comment Will Dwarkesh do a podcast with Satoshi Nakamoto before 2031? est-il réglé ?
- Manifold Markets règle ce marché comme suit : Resolves as YES if there is strong evidence that Satoshi Nakamoto has appeared on a published video/audio podcast with Dwarkesh Patel before January 1st 2031.