Manifold MarketsSans KYCDonnées de résolution vérifiéesAssez bien calibréPrévision communautaire actuelle
Samuel Alito 56.1%En tête parmi 9 options
Prévisionnistes
39
Type de question
multiple choice
Méthodologie
Play-money forecasting platform
Type de source
Prévision
Variation 7j
0.0 pts
Données du marché
Mis à jour il y a 2 heures
Obsolète9 juil. 24, 16:57 UTC17 juil. 30, 03:59 UTC
Tendances
Marchés Associés
Questions liées pour le contexte, et non une comparaison de contrats équivalents.
Which Supreme Court justice will retire/die next?
Manifold MarketsWill a Supreme Court justice retire during Trump’s second term?
Manifold MarketsWill a Supreme Court Justice die, retire or be replaced for any reason by the end of 2026?
Manifold MarketsAlexandre de Moraes out as Brazil Supreme Court Justice?
PolymarketWho will be the next Supreme Court justice?
KalshiNew Supreme Court justice confirmed?
KalshiRègles
Resolves when any Supreme Court Justice retires or dies while serving.
- Update 2025-22-01 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): - Any Justice leaving the Court will resolve this as YES.
- Expanding the size of the Court has no impact on a Justice leaving it.
Marchés ouverts
AIKALSHITop AI model in September?
- claude-fable-5.1-max-12.0pt72%
- claude-opus-5-high+2.0pt6%
- claude-opus-4-6-thinking4%
+3 résultats de plus
- Volume total
- 135,2 k €
- Volume 24h
- 102,7 k €
POLYMARKETWill CMI declare a Millennium Prize Problem solved by which date?
- 2028+6.5pt62.1%
- 2027-3.5pt28.4%
- 2026+2.0pt9.5%
POLYMARKETAnthropic IPO by which date?
- December 31,-1.0pt90%
- December 15,+3.5pt90%
- November 30,85%
+7 résultats de plus
- Volume total
KALSHIBest AI at the end of 2026?
- Claude-0.7pt61.4%
- ChatGPT-2.1pt22.8%
- Grok-0.1pt7.9%
+5 résultats de plus
- Volume total
- 9,1 M €
KALSHIBest AI in Sep 2026?
- Claude+3.0pt81.3%
- ChatGPT-1.0pt11.2%
- Grok2.8%
+4 résultats de plus
- Volume total
- 325 k €
POLYMARKETOpenAI’s Astra Model: Text Arena Debut?
- 1480+-2.5pt66%
- 1490+-9.0pt51%
- 1500+-3.0pt23%
+2 résultats de plus
- Largest IPO by market cap in 2026?
- OpenAI IPO Closing Market Cap
- When will Anthropic officially announce an IPO?
- Anthropic IPO Closing Market Cap
- When will OpenAI achieve AGI?
- Will Anthropic’s valuation hit __ by December 31?
- Will OpenAI's valuation hit __ by December 31?
- Next Google Gemini Pro Model released by which date?
- Best Chinese AI Company end of September?
- What will OpenAI's IPO valuation be?
Questions fréquentes
- Quelles sont les probabilités actuelles pour Which Supreme Court Justice will retire or die next? ?
- Manifold Markets cote Samuel Alito à 56% au 8 septembre 2026.
- Quand Which Supreme Court Justice will retire or die next? sera-t-il résolu ?
- Which Supreme Court Justice will retire or die next? doit être résolu le 17 juillet 2030.
- Comment Which Supreme Court Justice will retire or die next? est-il réglé ?
- Manifold Markets règle ce marché comme suit : Resolves when any Supreme Court Justice retires or dies while serving.