Which regimes will survive until 2028?
PolitiqueOne-OffGéopolitiqueMoyen-OrientRussie / UkraineChineAmérique latineÉlection1a
Manifold MarketsSans KYCDonnées de résolution vérifiéesAssez bien calibréPrévision communautaire actuelle
Russia 90.6%En tête parmi 7 options
Russia 90.6%Prévisionnistes
17
Type de question
multiple choice
Méthodologie
Play-money forecasting platform
Type de source
Prévision
Variation 7j
0.0 pts
Données du marché
Mis à jour il y a 6 heures
Obsolète10 déc. 24, 16:45 UTC2 janv. 28, 04:59 UTC
Tendances
Règles
Each answer resolves YES if the current ruling regime is not overthrown, dissolved, or ended (as determined by reputable news sources and Western government reports) by Jan 1, 2028.
- Some examples:
- If the current leader dies or ceases to be the leader, but the same party/group remains in power through 2028, this would resolve YES
- A military coup against any of the regimes (even if done by high ranking members of the current regime) resolves NO
- A democratic election in any regime in which the ruling party/leader wins does not resolve NO, but if an opposition party or leader wins, it would resolve NO
- If the regime loses power and then regains it, that still resolves NO
