When will the US 10 year treasury note yield go higher than 5%?
29.0 pts (24h)InflationOne-OffBonds & Treasuries2aManifold MarketsSans KYCDonnées de résolution vérifiéesAssez bien calibréPrévision communautaire actuelleBefore January 1, 2027 54%+29.0ptEn tête parmi 4 options
Prévisionnistes
5
Type de question
multiple choice
Méthodologie
Play-money forecasting platform
Type de source
Prévision
Variation 7j
+29.0 pts
Données du marché
Mis à jour il y a 2 minutes
3 sept. 26, 13:591 janv. 29, 14:35
Tendances
Actifs Sensibles au Macro
Règles
$40 trillion is a lot! Inflation over 3% is high! Neither political party is really interested in cutting spending.
- All of these lead to an inexorable increase and interest rates on US notes, and bonds.
- This market will result in a positive answer if during DAYTIME markets, the yield of the 10 year ticks up above 5% as reported by the CBOE ten year yield symbol ^tnx
Marchés ouverts
Inflation
POLYMARKETFed Decision in September?
- No change+12.0pt56%
- 25 bps increase-11.0pt43%
- 25 bps decrease+0.1pt1%
+2 résultats de plus
- Volume total
- 73,7 M €
- Volume 24h
- 4,9 M €
KALSHIInflation in August 2026 (CPI YoY)
- Above 2.5%99%
- Above 2.6%99%
- Above 2.8%99%
+23 résultats de plus
- Volume total
- 399,3 k €
- Volume 24h
- 69,2 k €
POLYMARKETFed rate hike by which date?
- October Meeting-10.0pt56.6%
- September Meeting-12.5pt43.4%
- April Meeting-0.1pt0%
+2 résultats de plus
POLYMARKETFed rate hike in 2026?
- Yes-9.0pt61.4%
- No+9.0pt38.6%
- Volume total
- 7,3 M €
- Volume 24h
- 40,9 k €
POLYMARKETHow many Fed rate hikes in 2026?
- 1 (25 bps)-2.5pt36.8%
- 0 (0 bps)+8.0pt34.9%
- 2 (50 bps)-3.0pt21.7%
+3 résultats de plus
POLYMARKETFed decisions (Jul–Oct)
- Pause–Pause–Pause+12.0pt43.7%
- Pause–Pause–Cut+0.8pt1.9%
- Cut–Pause–Pause0%
+6 résultats de plus
- August Inflation US - Annual
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- CPI year-over-year in Aug 2026?
- NYC median asking rent in December 2026
- CPI in August
- Core PCE YoY - August 2026
- Fed decisions (Sep–Dec)
- China Annual Inflation 2026
- August Inflation China - Annual
- Inflation in September 2026 (CPI YoY)
- FAO Food Price Index in August
- Core CPI MoM - August 2026
Cryptos liées
Questions fréquentes
- Quelles sont les probabilités actuelles pour When will the US 10 year treasury note yield go higher than 5%? ?
- Manifold Markets cote Before January 1, 2027 à 54% au 4 septembre 2026.
- Quand When will the US 10 year treasury note yield go higher than 5%? sera-t-il résolu ?
- When will the US 10 year treasury note yield go higher than 5%? doit être résolu le 1 janvier 2029.
- Comment When will the US 10 year treasury note yield go higher than 5%? est-il réglé ?
- Manifold Markets règle ce marché comme suit : $40 trillion is a lot! Inflation over 3% is high! Neither political party is really interested in cutting spending.