Prévision communautaire actuelle
2026 - 2028 inclusive 47.7%En tête parmi 5 options
Prévisionnistes
20
Type de question
multiple choice
Méthodologie
Play-money forecasting platform
Type de source
Prévision
Variation 7j
0.0 pts
Données du marché
Mis à jour il y a 2 heures
Obsolète4 nov. 23, 13:29 UTC11 nov. 30, 23:59 UTC
Tendances
Marchés Associés
Questions liées pour le contexte, et non une comparaison de contrats équivalents.
When Manifold's AGI countdown resolves YES, will Manifold users think that AGI really has been achieved?
Manifold MarketsDo Manifold users think that Model UN is dumb? (resolves end of 2026)
Manifold MarketsAt close, what % of the Manifold users will think that GiveWell's work before 2023 was net positive? Resolves in 100 years, but has .1% chance to resolve each year. Vote Yes to increase %.
Manifold MarketsAt the end of 2030 will Manifold users think Wikipedia has changed for the better compared to 2020?
Manifold MarketsWhich company has the best AI model end of October?
PolymarketBest AI at the end of 2026?
KalshiRègles
Yearly manifold poll.
- Do we currenly have AGI
- I don't know
- Bad quesiton
- We need a majority on Yes of all answers (not just yes/no)