Prévision communautaire actuelle
Non 50.4%
Prévisionnistes
46
Type de question
binary
Méthodologie
Play-money forecasting platform
Type de source
Prévision
Données du marché
Mis à jour il y a 11 heures
Obsolète22 avr. 24, 14:23 UTC31 déc. 28, 10:59 UTC
Tendances
Marchés Associés
Questions liées pour le contexte, et non une comparaison de contrats équivalents.
When will manifold users think we have AGI? [Resolves to a majority yes in poll]
Manifold MarketsDo Manifold users think that Model UN is dumb? (resolves end of 2026)
Manifold MarketsAt close, what % of the Manifold users will think that GiveWell's work before 2023 was net positive? Resolves in 100 years, but has .1% chance to resolve each year. Vote Yes to increase %.
Manifold MarketsAt the end of 2030 will Manifold users think Wikipedia has changed for the better compared to 2020?
Manifold MarketsWill ANOTHER millennium prize problem be solved in 2026?
Manifold MarketsWill it be conclusively shown (through some way) that slowing the aging rate of AI researchers down (eg interventions decreasing DNAm age) will increase their net output/productivity by 2029?
Manifold MarketsRègles
When this market resolves YES:
- https://manifold.markets/ManifoldAI/agi-when-resolves-to-the-year-in-wh-d5c5ad8e4708
- will most manifold users think AGI really has been achieved?
- Resolves to Manifold poll.
- Will be open for a week and boosted until it gets 100+ participants.
