Manifold MarketsSans KYCDonnées de résolution vérifiéesAssez bien calibréPrévision communautaire actuelleNot before 2027 97%En tête parmi 14 options
Prévisionnistes
41
Type de question
multiple choice
Méthodologie
Play-money forecasting platform
Type de source
Prévision
Variation 7j
0.0 pts
Données du marché
Mis à jour il y a 4 heures
Obsolète16 oct. 23, 07:49 UTC31 déc. 26, 13:29 UTC
Tendances
0.3%
0.2%
0.2%
0.2%
0.2%
0.1%
0.1%
0.1%
0.1%
0.1%
0.1%
0.1%
Marchés Associés
Questions liées pour le contexte, et non une comparaison de contrats équivalents.
Will Manifold reach 100k monthly active users before 2027?
Manifold MarketsManifold Monthly Active Traders at end of 2027
Manifold MarketsLife360 monthly active users in Q3
KalshiWill Claude surpass ChatGPT in monthly active users by end of 2026?
Manifold MarketsSpotify monthly active users in Q3
KalshiMercadoLibre fintech monthly active users in Q3
KalshiRègles
other = before 2024
- Will look at the stat page.
- If it reads 100k, resolves to the relevant bucket.
- I don't plan on doing detective work if it's manipulated.
- Having said that, if a considerable amount of traffic is fraudulent (e.g., 20%) I will possibly delay resolution to make necessary adjustments for blatant-bulk-manipulation.
- I'm not excluding alts, 10 person bot farms, whatever
Marchés ouverts
AIKALSHITop AI model in September?
- claude-fable-5.1-max+60.0pt71%
- claude-opus-5-max+1.0pt7%
- claude-opus-4-6-thinking4%
+3 résultats de plus
- Volume total
- 132,8 k €
- Volume 24h
- 100,3 k €
KALSHIBest AI at the end of 2026?
- Claude+4.8pt60.8%
- ChatGPT+0.5pt25.5%
- Grok-3.4pt5.9%
+5 résultats de plus
- Volume total
- 9,1 M €
POLYMARKETAnthropic IPO by which date?
- December 31,-1.0pt90%
- December 15,+1.0pt86%
- November 30,84%
+7 résultats de plus
- Volume total
POLYMARKETWill CMI declare a Millennium Prize Problem solved by which date?
- 2028+22.0pt62.2%
- 2027+11.0pt28.6%
- 2026+4.5pt9.2%
KALSHIBest AI in Sep 2026?
- Claude+5.0pt80.4%
- ChatGPT-2.0pt12.2%
- Grok2.8%
+4 résultats de plus
- Volume total
- 322,4 k €
POLYMARKETOpenAI’s Astra Model: Text Arena Debut?
- 1480+-1.0pt66%
- 1490+-3.5pt51%
- 1500+-1.0pt30%
+2 résultats de plus
- Largest IPO by market cap in 2026?
- OpenAI IPO Closing Market Cap
- When will OpenAI achieve AGI?
- OpenAI announces it has achieved AGI before 2027?
- Will Anthropic’s valuation hit __ by December 31?
- Will OpenAI's valuation hit __ by December 31?
- Next Google Gemini Pro Model released by which date?
- Anthropic IPO Closing Market Cap
- What will OpenAI's IPO valuation be?
- Which company has best AI model end of 2026?
Questions fréquentes
- Quelles sont les probabilités actuelles pour When will Manifold reach 100,000 Monthly active traders? ?
- Manifold Markets cote Not before 2027 à 97% au 8 septembre 2026.
- Quand When will Manifold reach 100,000 Monthly active traders? sera-t-il résolu ?
- When will Manifold reach 100,000 Monthly active traders? doit être résolu le 31 décembre 2026.
- Comment When will Manifold reach 100,000 Monthly active traders? est-il réglé ?
- Manifold Markets règle ce marché comme suit : other = before 2024