When will a US government AI run overtake private AI compute by FLOP?
IAOne-OffPolitique américaine8a
Manifold MarketsSans KYCDonnées de résolution vérifiéesBien calibréPrévision communautaire actuelle
<2035 62%En tête parmi 7 options
<2035 62%Prévisionnistes
36
Type de question
multiple choice
Méthodologie
Play-money forecasting platform
Type de source
Prévision
Variation 7j
0.0 pts
Données du marché
Mis à jour il y a 3 heures
Obsolète5 juin 24, 02:26 UTC2 janv. 35, 04:59 UTC
Tendances
Règles
By what year will the most FLOP intensive run have been conducted or owned by the US federal government? Resolves Yes on all later years.
- Qualifying events:
- Any arrangement (contractors, national labs etc.) under which the US government employees have the right to control what queries are run on the model.
- Any international collaboration where the US retains model query veto rights, but does not include international collaboration where the US is a stakeholder having e.g. a minority vote.
- If the US government seizes control over the current most FLOP-intensive pre-existing AI this qualifies.
- Any unanticipated event which clearly satisfies the spirit of this question
