Manifold MarketsSans KYCDonnées de résolution vérifiéesAssez bien calibréPrévision communautaire actuelle
>=2030 69.2%En tête parmi 7 options
Prévisionnistes
39
Type de question
multiple choice
Méthodologie
Play-money forecasting platform
Type de source
Prévision
Variation 7j
0.0 pts
Données du marché
Mis à jour il y a 16 heures
Obsolète1 janv. 24, 17:57 UTC9 janv. 30, 05:59 UTC
Tendances
Marchés Associés
Questions liées pour le contexte, et non une comparaison de contrats équivalents.
Will there be more software engineers (the kind that write code, e.g. Python or C or JavaScript code) in 5 years?
Manifold MarketsIn 2028, Will it be obvious that software engineers aren't being 10x more productive than in 2022?
Manifold MarketsWhen will Google, Amazon, Facebook each employ <2,000 human software engineers?
Manifold MarketsFed Decision in September?
PolymarketCPI in August
KalshiFed rate hike by which date?
PolymarketRègles
This market is necessarily slightly subjective.
- I will be tentatively operationalizing the question as:
- The median (CPI-adjusted) salary for most software engineers dropping to ~50% below the 2021 all-time-high, OR
- The number of software engineers in the United States dropping by ~50%, OR
- Some combination of the above of the same significance (e.g. 25% salary drop + 25% dropout).
- I will probably be looking at the BLS summaries or the levels.fyi end-of-year report unless someone in the comments suggests a better source.
Marchés ouverts
InflationPOLYMARKETFed Decision in September?
- 25 bps increase+3.0pt52.5%
- No change-3.0pt46.5%
- 50+ bps increase1%
+2 résultats de plus
- Volume total
- 89,5 M €
- Volume 24h
- 2,3 M €
KALSHICPI in August
- Above -0.3%99%
- Above -0.1%99%
- Above 0.0%99%
+12 résultats de plus
- Volume total
- 323,8 k €
- Volume 24h
- 25,3 k €
KALSHIInflation in August 2026 (CPI YoY)
- Above 2.5%99%
- Above 2.6%99%
- Above 2.8%99%
+23 résultats de plus
- Volume total
- 523 k €
- Volume 24h
- 22 k €
POLYMARKETFed rate hike by which date?
- October Meeting+1.0pt54.3%
- September Meeting+3.0pt45.7%
- April Meeting-0.1pt0%
+2 résultats de plus
POLYMARKETArgentina Monthly Inflation - August
- 1.5-1.7%-9.9pt68.8%
- 1.8-2.0%+8.2pt26%
- 1.2-1.4%-3.0pt3.1%
+5 résultats de plus
KALSHIWill the Citrini scenario happen?
- No83%
- Yes17%
- Volume total
- 22,3 M €
- Volume 24h
- 4,4 k €
- August Inflation US - Annual
- Core CPI MoM - August 2026
- August Inflation US - Monthly
- How many Fed rate hikes in 2026?
- Fed decisions (Sep–Dec)
- Fed rate hike in 2026?
- Core PCE YoY - August 2026
- Will the year-over-year change in the US Core CPI exceed 2.4% in August 2026?
- Will the year-over-year change in the US Core CPI exceed 2.2% in August 2026?
- Fed decisions (Jun-Sep)
- Egg prices up in August?
Questions fréquentes
- Quelles sont les probabilités actuelles pour When will American software engineers start to face significant disemployment? ?
- Manifold Markets cote >=2030 à 69% au 7 septembre 2026.
- Quand When will American software engineers start to face significant disemployment? sera-t-il résolu ?
- When will American software engineers start to face significant disemployment? doit être résolu le 9 janvier 2030.
- Comment When will American software engineers start to face significant disemployment? est-il réglé ?
- Manifold Markets règle ce marché comme suit : This market is necessarily slightly subjective.