Manifold MarketsSans KYCDonnées de résolution vérifiéesAssez bien calibréPrévision communautaire actuelle
>=2030 69.2%En tête parmi 7 options
>=2030 69.2%Prévisionnistes
39
Type de question
multiple choice
Méthodologie
Play-money forecasting platform
Type de source
Prévision
Variation 7j
0.0 pts
Données du marché
Mis à jour il y a 9 heures
Obsolète1 janv. 24, 17:57 UTC9 janv. 30, 05:59 UTC
Tendances
Marchés Associés
Questions liées pour le contexte, et non une comparaison de contrats équivalents.
When will software engineers' inflation-adjusted salaries finally re-reach their 2021 levels?
Manifold MarketsWill there be more software engineers (the kind that write code, e.g. Python or C or JavaScript code) in 5 years?
Manifold MarketsWill software engineers' inflation-adjusted salaries reach their 2021 levels by 2030?
Manifold MarketsWill the median reported total compensation for L3 software engineers at Google exceed $300,000 before 2030?
Manifold MarketsFed Decision in October?
PolymarketFed decisions (Sep–Dec)
PolymarketRègles
This market is necessarily slightly subjective.
- I will be tentatively operationalizing the question as:
- The median (CPI-adjusted) salary for most software engineers dropping to ~50% below the 2021 all-time-high, OR
- The number of software engineers in the United States dropping by ~50%, OR
- Some combination of the above of the same significance (e.g. 25% salary drop + 25% dropout).
- I will probably be looking at the BLS summaries or the levels.fyi end-of-year report unless someone in the comments suggests a better source.
