Manifold MarketsSans KYCDonnées de résolution vérifiéesAssez bien calibréPrévision communautaire actuelle2028 83.5%En tête parmi 5 options
Prévisionnistes
39
Type de question
multiple choice
Méthodologie
Play-money forecasting platform
Type de source
Prévision
Variation 7j
0.0 pts
Données du marché
Mis à jour il y a 1 heure
En retard3 mars 24, 23:10 UTC1 janv. 29, 07:59 UTC
Tendances
0%
0%
Marchés Associés
Questions liées pour le contexte, et non une comparaison de contrats équivalents.
Will open models be able to solve Navier Stokes by the end of 2028 for under $1000 in compute?
Manifold MarketsDid Jane Street do anything wrong in India?
Manifold MarketsJane Street guilty of Indian market manipulation or settles for $100M+?
Manifold MarketsBest Chinese AI Company end of September?
PolymarketBest AI at the end of 2026?
KalshiBest Chinese AI Company end of October?
PolymarketRègles
Every month for around the last 10 years, Jane Street (a trading firm) has released a difficult puzzle on their website: https://www.janestreet.com/puzzles/archive/.
- Right now, the best publicly accessible AI (GPT-4 or Gemini Ultra) is not very good at this.
- I tried running the February puzzle through both and GPT-4 gave a few definitions and then said it was complex (though it did correctly simulate it afterward, even though the problem asked for an exact answer), and Gemini Ultra wasn't even close.
- During which year will a publicly accessible AI be able to solve at least 6 of the 12 puzzles released during the year? (Resolves yes during each year this happens.
- Multiple years can resolve YES)
- Clarifications
Marchés ouverts
AIKALSHIAnthropic market share this week
- Above 2.05%+3.0pt99%
- Above 2.25%-1.0pt97%
- Above 2.65%+21.0pt94%
+6 résultats de plus
- Volume total
- 116 k €
- Volume 24h
- 99,3 k €
KALSHIBest AI at the end of 2026?
- Claude+2.6pt70.6%
- ChatGPT-1.1pt14.7%
- Gemini-0.3pt6.9%
+5 résultats de plus
- Volume total
- 9,8 M €
POLYMARKETBest Chinese AI Company end of October?
- Alibaba-5.0pt69%
- Moonshot-5.5pt14%
- Z.ai-2.4pt6%
+8 résultats de plus
POLYMARKETAnthropic IPO by which date?
- December 31,+1.0pt87%
- December 15,83%
- November 30,+2.0pt80%
+7 résultats de plus
- Volume total
POLYMARKETBest Chinese AI Company end of September?
- Alibaba+3.0pt87.1%
- Moonshot-2.9pt8.9%
- Z.ai-0.8pt2%
+8 résultats de plus
KALSHITencent market share this week
- Above 2.7%+4.0pt96%
- Above 4.5%+31.0pt54%
- Above 5.6%+6.0pt12%
+6 résultats de plus
- Volume total
- OpenAI announces another Millennium Prize solution by which date?
- Will Anthropic’s valuation hit __ by December 31?
- Best AI in Sep 2026?
- OpenAI market share this week
- Which Millennium Prize Problem will AI solve next?
- Largest IPO by market cap in 2026?
- When will Anthropic officially announce an IPO?
- DeepSeek market share this week
- How many more Millennium Prize Problems will AI solve in 2026?
- AI lab announces another Millennium Prize solution by which date?
Questions fréquentes
- Quelles sont les probabilités actuelles pour When will AI be able to solve 50% of official Jane Street puzzles? ?
- Manifold Markets cote 2028 à 84% au 17 septembre 2026.
- Quand When will AI be able to solve 50% of official Jane Street puzzles? sera-t-il résolu ?
- When will AI be able to solve 50% of official Jane Street puzzles? doit être résolu le 1 janvier 2029.
- Comment When will AI be able to solve 50% of official Jane Street puzzles? est-il réglé ?
- Manifold Markets règle ce marché comme suit : Every month for around the last 10 years, Jane Street (a trading firm) has released a difficult puzzle on their website: https://www.janestreet.com/puzzles/archive/.