Manifold MarketsSans KYCDonnées de résolution vérifiéesBien calibréPrévision communautaire actuelle2028 83.5%En tête parmi 5 options
Prévisionnistes
39
Type de question
multiple choice
Méthodologie
Play-money forecasting platform
Type de source
Prévision
Variation 7j
0.0 pts
Données du marché
Mis à jour il y a 7 minutes
3 mars 24, 23:10 UTC1 janv. 29, 07:59 UTC
Tendances
Marchés Associés
Questions liées pour le contexte, et non une comparaison de contrats équivalents.
Did Jane Street do anything wrong in India?
Manifold MarketsJane Street guilty of Indian market manipulation or settles for $100M+?
Manifold MarketsWill GPT-5 be able to solve A::B system puzzles consistently
Manifold MarketsWill open models be able to solve Navier Stokes by the end of 2028 for under $1000 in compute?
Manifold MarketsLargest IPO by market cap in 2026?
PolymarketBest AI at the end of 2026?
KalshiRègles
Every month for around the last 10 years, Jane Street (a trading firm) has released a difficult puzzle on their website: https://www.janestreet.com/puzzles/archive/.
- Right now, the best publicly accessible AI (GPT-4 or Gemini Ultra) is not very good at this.
- I tried running the February puzzle through both and GPT-4 gave a few definitions and then said it was complex (though it did correctly simulate it afterward, even though the problem asked for an exact answer), and Gemini Ultra wasn't even close.
- During which year will a publicly accessible AI be able to solve at least 6 of the 12 puzzles released during the year? (Resolves yes during each year this happens.
- Multiple years can resolve YES)
- Clarifications