Manifold MarketsSans KYCDonnées de résolution vérifiéesBien calibréPrévision communautaire actuelle
2028 26%En tête parmi 12 options
2028 26%Prévisionnistes
27
Type de question
multiple choice
Méthodologie
Play-money forecasting platform
Type de source
Prévision
Variation 7j
0.0 pts
Données du marché
Mis à jour il y a 8 heures
Obsolète4 juil. 24, 18:19 UTC12 juil. 35, 03:59 UTC
Tendances
Marchés Associés
Questions liées pour le contexte, et non une comparaison de contrats équivalents.
If OpenAI makes a transformer sized advancement in the next 5 years, will they publish an accompanying paper?
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Manifold MarketsRègles
This isn't about gross revenue, it's revenue minus all expenses.
- Resolves when official financial reporting is available, showing their revenue minus expenses was positive for OpenAI, in any year.
- Resolves that year to "Yes" and all other options to "No".
- We can add more years if they are still running but haven't made a profit yet.
- If they go out of business first, then we resolve to "the named outcome".