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  1. Marchés de Prédiction
  2. Fed
  3. What share of US adults will use generative AI at least weekly by the end of 2030?
Manifold Markets

What share of US adults will use generative AI at least weekly by the end of 2030?

FedWeeklyIATech4a
Manifold MarketsManifold MarketsSans KYC
Prévision communautaire actuelle
Manifold Markets
Less than 40% 2.1%
En tête parmi 7 options
Prévisionnistes

4

Type de question

multiple choice

Méthodologie

Play-money forecasting platform

Type de source

Prévision

Données du marché

Mis à jour il y a 7 minutes

10 juin 26, 11:0131 déc. 30, 23:59

Tendances

Résultat24hProbabilité

Résultat choisi

Less than 40%2%

Règles

Resolves to the share of US adults (18-64) who report using generative AI in the past week, for any purpose (work or personal), in the latest available 2030 reading of the Real-Time Population Survey (RPS — Bick, Blandin & Deming, tracked in the Federal Reserve's "Monitoring AI Adoption" series).

Manifold Markets
  • If the RPS stops publishing a comparable weekly-use measure, resolution falls back to the closest equivalent nationally representative survey: Pew Research Center first, then Gallup ("use AI at least a few times a week" or nearest equivalent; population-wide if available, otherwise workers).
  • Resolves when the final 2030 reading is published (expected early 2031).
  • Trading closes Dec 31, 2030.
  • How phone and assistant usage counts
  • The RPS is a self-report survey: it defines generative AI with named examples (ChatGPT, Gemini, Copilot, etc.) and asks whether you used it in the past week.

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Règles

Resolves to the share of US adults (18-64) who report using generative AI in the past week, for any purpose (work or personal), in the latest available 2030 reading of the Real-Time Population Survey (RPS — Bick, Blandin & Deming, tracked in the Federal Reserve's "Monitoring AI Adoption" series).

Manifold Markets
  • If the RPS stops publishing a comparable weekly-use measure, resolution falls back to the closest equivalent nationally representative survey: Pew Research Center first, then Gallup ("use AI at least a few times a week" or nearest equivalent; population-wide if available, otherwise workers).
  • Resolves when the final 2030 reading is published (expected early 2031).
  • Trading closes Dec 31, 2030.
  • How phone and assistant usage counts
  • The RPS is a self-report survey: it defines generative AI with named examples (ChatGPT, Gemini, Copilot, etc.) and asks whether you used it in the past week.