Alerte qualité des donnéesDonnées obsolètes
Données au 11 juin 2026, 13:07 UTC · politique pm-quality-2
Prévision communautaire actuelle
Less than 40% 2.1%En tête parmi 7 options
Prévisionnistes
4
Type de question
multiple choice
Méthodologie
Play-money forecasting platform
Type de source
Prévision
Données du marché
Mis à jour il y a 44 jours
Obsolète10 juin 26, 11:0131 déc. 30, 23:59
Tendances
Fonds fictifs uniquement, aucun argent réelCeci n'est pas un conseil financier
Résultat choisi
Less than 40%2%
Marchés Associés
Largest IPO by market cap in 2026?
4,1 k €SpaceX: 86%
POLYMARKET
POLYMARKET
Will Jerome Powell join an AI company in 2026?
0 €Oui: 6%POLYMARKET
POLYMARKET
Will the US Fed Funds Target Rate be set above 3.625% at the FOMC meeting ending July 29, 2026?
17,6 €Oui: 24%FORECASTEX
FORECASTEXWill the US Fed Funds Target Rate be set above 3.125% at the FOMC meeting ending July 29, 2026?
8,8 €Oui: 97%FORECASTEX
FORECASTEXWill the US Fed Funds Target Rate be set above 3.375% at the FOMC meeting ending July 29, 2026?
0 €Oui: 98%FORECASTEX
FORECASTEXIn 2028, will at least 3.5m Americans be talking at least weekly to an AI they consider a romantic companion?
44 €Oui: 21.7%MANIFOLD MARKETS
MANIFOLD MARKETSActifs dans ces sujets
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Resolves to the share of US adults (18-64) who report using generative AI in the past week, for any purpose (work or personal), in the latest available 2030 reading of the Real-Time Population Survey (RPS — Bick, Blandin & Deming, tracked in the Federal Reserve's "Monitoring AI Adoption" series).
- If the RPS stops publishing a comparable weekly-use measure, resolution falls back to the closest equivalent nationally representative survey: Pew Research Center first, then Gallup ("use AI at least a few times a week" or nearest equivalent; population-wide if available, otherwise workers).
- Resolves when the final 2030 reading is published (expected early 2031).
- Trading closes Dec 31, 2030.
- How phone and assistant usage counts
- The RPS is a self-report survey: it defines generative AI with named examples (ChatGPT, Gemini, Copilot, etc.) and asks whether you used it in the past week.