Quelles sont les probabilités actuelles pour Was Haley Stevens paid to endorse Mike Rodgers? ?

Manifold Markets cote No à 77.7% au 11 novembre 2026.

Quand Was Haley Stevens paid to endorse Mike Rodgers? sera-t-il résolu ?

Was Haley Stevens paid to endorse Mike Rodgers? doit être résolu le 31 décembre 2026.

Manifold Markets règle ce marché comme suit : Resolution criteria

Manifold MarketsSans KYCDonnées de résolution vérifiéesBien calibré

Prévision communautaire actuelle

Non 77.7%

Prévisionnistes

Type de question

binary

Méthodologie

Play-money forecasting platform

Type de source

Prévision

Données du marché

Mis à jour il y a 1 heure

En retard

1 nov. 26, 22:39 UTC31 déc. 26, 22:37 UTC

Tendances

Résultat24hProbabilité

Règles

Resolution criteria

This market resolves to YES if, by December 31, 2026, credible reporting or official investigative disclosures confirm that U.S. Representative Haley Stevens (or an affiliated entity under her direction) received direct financial compensation, an explicit quid pro quo payment, or monetary consideration in exchange for endorsing Republican candidate Mike Rogers in the Michigan U.S. Senate race.
Standard campaign contributions made to her campaign committee or leadership PAC in the ordinary course of politics do not qualify unless established by an official investigative finding (such as the Federal Election Commission, House Ethics Committee, or Department of Justice) or verified mainstream investigative reporting to be an illegal or direct payment specifically contingent upon her endorsement.
Credible sources include major consensus news outlets (such as the Associated Press, Reuters, The New York Times, The Washington Post, or Wall Street Journal) or official government reports from bodies such as the Federal Election Commission or House Committee on Ethics.
If no credible confirmation of financial payment for the endorsement is published by 11:59 PM ET on December 31, 2026, the market resolves to NO.
On November 1, 2026, two days before the general election, Democratic Representative Haley Stevens announced her endorsement of Republican nominee Mike Rogers in Michigan's U.S. Senate race.