Manifold MarketsSans KYCDonnées de résolution vérifiéesAssez bien calibréPrévision communautaire actuelleNon 86.5%
Prévisionnistes
7
Type de question
binary
Méthodologie
Play-money forecasting platform
Type de source
Prévision
Données du marché
Mis à jour il y a 21 heures
Obsolète7 août 25, 09:01 UTC31 déc. 26, 23:59 UTC
Tendances
Actifs Sensibles au Macro
Marchés Associés
Questions liées pour le contexte, et non une comparaison de contrats équivalents.
Fed rate hike by which date?
PolymarketFed rate hike in 2026?
PolymarketWill the Federal Reserve hike interest rates in 2026?
Manifold Markets2026 rate hike parlay (Fed + ECB + BOJ + BOE + PBC)
Manifold MarketsFed rate hike by...? [Polymarket]
Manifold MarketsHow many states will adopt data center moratoriums in 2026?
KalshiRègles
The U.S. government is considering a major overhaul of the patent fee model.
- According to The Wall Street Journal, Commerce Department officials are weighing a plan that would charge patent holders 1% to 5% of a patent’s overall value annually—departing from the traditional fixed-fee system in place for over 235 years.
- If implemented, this change could massively increase costs for companies like IBM, Apple, and Samsung, which hold thousands of high-value patents across AI, semiconductors, and biotech.
- Resolution Criteria:
- This market will resolve “Yes” if, by December 31, 2026, the U.S. federal government enacts a law or regulation that introduces a variable annual fee based on a patent’s value (e.g., a percentage of assessed or declared value) instead of—or in addition to—the traditional fixed-fee structure.
- The new pricing model must be active and enforceable (not just proposed) before the resolution date.
Marchés ouverts
InflationPOLYMARKETFed Decision in September?
- 25 bps increase+1.0pt54%
- No change-2.0pt45%
- 50+ bps increase+0.1pt1%
+2 résultats de plus
- Volume total
- 91 M €
- Volume 24h
- 1,7 M €
KALSHIInflation in August 2026 (CPI YoY)
- Above 2.7%+1.0pt99%
- Above 2.9%99%
- Above 2.5%99%
+23 résultats de plus
- Volume total
- 569,7 k €
- Volume 24h
- 47,4 k €
KALSHICPI in August
- Above 0.1%+2.0pt99%
- Above -0.4%+1.0pt99%
- Above -0.3%99%
+12 résultats de plus
- Volume total
- 359,2 k €
- Volume 24h
POLYMARKETFed rate hike by which date?
- October Meeting+3.0pt54.5%
- September Meeting+2.0pt45.5%
- April Meeting-0.1pt0%
+2 résultats de plus
KALSHINYC median asking rent in December 2026
- Above $3,80095%
- Above $3,900+1.0pt82%
- Above $4,00044%
+5 résultats de plus
- Volume total
- 79,7 k €
- Volume 24h
KALSHICPI core in August
- Above 0.0%99%
- Above 0.1%+5.0pt86%
- Above 0.2%36%
+8 résultats de plus
- Volume total
- 18,3 k €
- Volume 24h
- 7,3 k €
- CPI year-over-year in Aug 2026?
- Fed rate hike in 2026?
- Core CPI MoM - August 2026
- CPI in September
- How many Fed rate hikes in 2026?
- Fed decisions (Jun-Sep)
- CPI-U index in August
- How high will inflation get in 2026?
- State of the economy at the end of 2026
- Core CPI YoY - August 2026
- Inflation in September 2026 (CPI YoY)
- August 2026 CPI MoM Combo: Headline & Core
Cryptos liées
Questions fréquentes
- Quelles sont les probabilités actuelles pour US Patent System gets a price hike by 2026? ?
- Manifold Markets cote No à 87% au 8 septembre 2026.
- Quand US Patent System gets a price hike by 2026? sera-t-il résolu ?
- US Patent System gets a price hike by 2026? doit être résolu le 31 décembre 2026.
- Comment US Patent System gets a price hike by 2026? est-il réglé ?
- Manifold Markets règle ce marché comme suit : The U.S. government is considering a major overhaul of the patent fee model.