Trump's approval rating (Gallup) will fall to 24% or below before the end of his second term
PolitiqueOne-OffPolitique américaineÉlection2aManifold MarketsSans KYCDonnées de résolution vérifiéesBien calibréAlerte qualité des donnéesDonnées obsolètes
Données au 29 oct. 2026, 13:06 UTC · politique pm-quality-4
Prévision communautaire actuelleNon 82%
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20
Type de question
binary
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Play-money forecasting platform
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Prévision
Données du marché
Mis à jour hier
Obsolète14 janv. 26, 23:22 UTC20 janv. 29, 23:59 UTC
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Questions liées pour le contexte, et non une comparaison de contrats équivalents.
Will Trump's approval rating be above 40% at the end of his second term?
Manifold MarketsWill Trump's approval rating return to 47%+ before his second term ends?
Manifold MarketsWill Donald Trump’s approval rating at the end of his second term be at least as low as Joe Biden’s?
Manifold MarketsHow low will Trump's approval rating get during his term?
KalshiIf protestors get shot by law enforcement during Trump's second term will his net approval rating go up?
Manifold MarketsTrump's approval rating on Oct 30, 2026?
KalshiRègles
Given Gallups recent announcement to no longer track and publish approval ratings, I changing the criteria to be based on the NY Times:
- https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/polls/donald-trump-approval-rating-polls.html
- Times also trends higher than Gallup so adjusting the target up 2 points.
- Leaving the original description below for posterity:
- This market resolves to true if Trump's approval rating during his second term falls below the lowest of any President since Nixon.
- GW Bush had the lowest at 25%, so this resolves to true if at any point in his second term his approval drops to 24% or below
