There will be a change to the permanent members of the UN Security council before 2040
GéopolitiqueOne-OffRussie / Ukraine13aManifold MarketsSans KYCDonnées de résolution vérifiéesAssez bien calibréPrévision communautaire actuelleOui 51.2%
Prévisionnistes
16
Type de question
binary
Méthodologie
Play-money forecasting platform
Type de source
Prévision
Données du marché
Mis à jour il y a 2 heures
Obsolète30 déc. 22, 19:25 UTC1 janv. 40, 19:00 UTC
Tendances
Règles
what counts: 1. new permanent member 2. member removed 3. expansion / shrinking of membership 4. removal of the veto power 5. dissolution of the UN
- Update 2024-13-12 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): If Russia breaks apart, the market will follow the part which retains:
- Moscow/the capital
- Control of the military
- The cultural core
- If there is a division at such a high level that it's not clear which part represents Russia, the market may be voided.
