Prévision communautaire actuelle
Tesla 65.5%
Prévisionnistes
23
Type de question
multiple choice
Méthodologie
Play-money forecasting platform
Type de source
Prévision
Variation 7j
0.0 pts
Données du marché
Mis à jour il y a 3 heures
Obsolète26 avr. 25, 06:27 UTC31 déc. 26, 06:38 UTC
Tendances
Marchés Associés
Questions liées pour le contexte, et non une comparaison de contrats équivalents.
Will any city in the UK have a self-driving taxi service by the end of 2026?
Manifold MarketsWill a major city in Europe have a generally available self-driving taxi or rideshare service by 2026?
Manifold MarketsWill California have a generally available self-driving taxi or rideshare service by 2026?
Manifold MarketsWill New York City have a generally available self-driving taxi or rideshare service by 2026?
Manifold MarketsBest AI at the end of 2026?
KalshiWill Anthropic’s valuation hit __ by December 31?
PolymarketRègles
Tesla is planning to release self-driving taxis in June.
- Waymo has been scaling their self-driving taxi service for a while.
- This market is to predict, between Waymo and Tesla, which company will first be responsible for a vehicle that is designed to be fully autonomous (i.e. operated with no driver behind the wheel, if there even is a wheel) and is available for public use causing a major accident.
- If the vehicle has a wheel, it must be operating without user input at the time of the crash.
- A major accident must
- Be reported on in at least two major news outlets, AND