OpenAI Goes Broke before 2033 (See criteria)
InflationIAOne-OffOpérations sur titresEntreprises et affaires6a
Manifold MarketsSans KYCDonnées de résolution vérifiéesAssez bien calibréPrévision communautaire actuelleNon 75%
Prévisionnistes
9
Type de question
binary
Méthodologie
Play-money forecasting platform
Type de source
Prévision
Données du marché
Mis à jour il y a 3 heures
Obsolète14 mars 26, 08:36 UTC31 déc. 32, 23:59 UTC
Tendances
Marchés Associés
Questions liées pour le contexte, et non une comparaison de contrats équivalents.
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Manifold MarketsRègles
OpenAI fails financially before Dec 31 2032.
- Settlement criteria: if one or more of the following happens before the deadline, the claim resolves to YES.
- (1) Acquisition for severe discount.
- OpenAI is purchased by another firm for a valuation that is less than half of its 2025 valuation (US$500 billion 2025 dollars.) (https://www.cnbc.com/2025/10/02/openai-share-sale-500-billion-valuation.html) Purchase price will be inflation adjusted to compare with the 2025 valuation.
- (2) OpenAI cannot pay its bills and fails to provide services.
- OpenAI becomes like pets.com in the early 2000s.
