OpenAI Goes Broke before 2033 (See criteria)
InflationIAOne-OffCorporate ActionsBusiness & Corporate6aManifold MarketsSans KYCDonnées de résolution vérifiéesAssez bien calibréPrévision communautaire actuelleNon 75%
Prévisionnistes
9
Type de question
binary
Méthodologie
Play-money forecasting platform
Type de source
Prévision
Données du marché
Mis à jour il y a 1 heure
En retard14 mars 26, 08:36 UTC31 déc. 32, 23:59 UTC
Tendances
Marchés Associés
Questions liées pour le contexte, et non une comparaison de contrats équivalents.
If OpenAI goes public before 2028, will I consider their claimed ARR revenue figures to be misleading?
Manifold MarketsIf OpenAI goes public and releases their first financials before 2028, what will their net income margin be?
Manifold MarketsIs Floyd Mayweather Broke? 🥊💰🤑💵💸
Manifold MarketsLargest IPO by market cap in 2026?
PolymarketOpenAI IPO Closing Market Cap
PolymarketWill Anthropic’s valuation hit __ by December 31?
PolymarketRègles
OpenAI fails financially before Dec 31 2032.
- Settlement criteria: if one or more of the following happens before the deadline, the claim resolves to YES.
- (1) Acquisition for severe discount.
- OpenAI is purchased by another firm for a valuation that is less than half of its 2025 valuation (US$500 billion 2025 dollars.) (https://www.cnbc.com/2025/10/02/openai-share-sale-500-billion-valuation.html) Purchase price will be inflation adjusted to compare with the 2025 valuation.
- (2) OpenAI cannot pay its bills and fails to provide services.
- OpenAI becomes like pets.com in the early 2000s.
Marchés ouverts
InflationPOLYMARKETFed Decision in September?
- 25 bps increase+2.0pt53.5%
- No change-1.0pt46.5%
- 50+ bps decrease0%
+2 résultats de plus
- Volume total
- 90,2 M €
- Volume 24h
- 1,3 M €
KALSHICPI in August
- Above -0.4%+1.0pt99%
- Above -0.3%99%
- Above -0.1%99%
+12 résultats de plus
- Volume total
- 358,5 k €
- Volume 24h
- 35,6 k €
KALSHIInflation in August 2026 (CPI YoY)
- Above 3.1%+2.0pt99%
- Above 2.9%99%
- Above 2.5%99%
+23 résultats de plus
- Volume total
- 554,4 k €
- Volume 24h
- 33,8 k €
POLYMARKETAugust Inflation China - Annual
- 0.7% - 0.8%+56.5pt100%
- ≤0.2%-0.5pt0%
- 0.3% - 0.4%-7.3pt0%
+2 résultats de plus
POLYMARKETFed rate hike by which date?
- October Meeting+2.0pt54.2%
- September Meeting+2.0pt45.8%
- April Meeting-0.1pt0%
+2 résultats de plus
KALSHINYC median asking rent in December 2026
- Above $3,80095%
- Above $3,90081%
- Above $4,00044%
+5 résultats de plus
- Volume total
- 79,7 k €
- Volume 24h
- 7,6 k €
- Core CPI MoM - August 2026
- Fed rate hike in 2026?
- CPI core in August
- CPI year-over-year in Aug 2026?
- CPI in September
- Fed decisions (Jun-Sep)
- How many Fed rate hikes in 2026?
- CPI-U index in August
- August Inflation US - Annual
- August Inflation US - Monthly
- State of the economy at the end of 2026
- How high will inflation get in 2026?
Questions fréquentes
- Quelles sont les probabilités actuelles pour OpenAI Goes Broke before 2033 (See criteria) ?
- Manifold Markets cote No à 75% au 9 septembre 2026.
- Quand OpenAI Goes Broke before 2033 (See criteria) sera-t-il résolu ?
- OpenAI Goes Broke before 2033 (See criteria) doit être résolu le 31 décembre 2032.
- Comment OpenAI Goes Broke before 2033 (See criteria) est-il réglé ?
- Manifold Markets règle ce marché comme suit : OpenAI fails financially before Dec 31 2032.