Manifold MarketsSans KYCDonnées de résolution vérifiéesBien calibréPrévision communautaire actuelleOui 87.4%
Prévisionnistes
20
Type de question
binary
Méthodologie
Play-money forecasting platform
Type de source
Prévision
Données du marché
Mis à jour il y a 9 heures
Obsolète6 janv. 26, 00:52 UTC1 janv. 27, 07:59 UTC
Tendances
Marchés Associés
Questions liées pour le contexte, et non une comparaison de contrats équivalents.
Supreme Court vacancy in 2026?
PolymarketWill there be a Supreme Court vacancy in 2026?
PredictItWhat will cause the next Supreme Court vacancy?
Manifold MarketsNew Supreme Court justice confirmed?
KalshiWhen will Justice Alito retire from the Supreme Court?
KalshiWill Alexandre de Moraes leave Brazil's Supreme Court?
KalshiRègles
Part of Matt Yglesias' "Predictions for 2026" from his Slow Boring newsletter.
- Source: [Predictions for 2026](https://www.slowboring.com/i/181456375/predictions-for) Yglesias assigned 80% probability to this prediction.
- Original prediction: "No Supreme Court vacancy opens up" Resolution: Will resolve based on Yglesias' own assessment in his January 2027 review post.
- If he doesn't publish one, market creator will resolve based on the outcome.