[Metaculus] By June 2032, will the US FDA authorize a vaccine w/o phase III in response to a public health emergency?
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Données au 25 oct. 2026, 21:52 UTC · politique pm-quality-4
Prévision communautaire actuelleNon 84.2%
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Type de question
binary
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Mis à jour il y a 1 heure
En retard12 oct. 23, 22:28 UTC2 juin 32, 09:00 UTC
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Before June 2032, will the US FDA authorize a vaccine without phase III efficacy data in response to a new public health emergency?
- Resolves the same as the original on Metaculus.
- Resolution criteria
- This question will resolve as Yes if, before June 1, 2032, the US FDA authorizes a vaccine on an emergency basis before that vaccine has completed a phase III clinical trial.
- This is conditional on the US declaring a public health emergency (relevant Metaculus question here) and on a subsequent declaration authorizing the FDA to issue EUAs (no relevant Metaculus question, but example here); If these two conditions are not met, this question will resolve as Ambiguous.
- For the purposes of this question, If a vaccine is authorized after a Human Challenge Trial is completed in place of a full-scale phase-III trial, that would be considered an authorization without a phase-III trial and this question would resolve as Yes.
