Quelles sont les probabilités actuelles pour Maduro out of custody by EOY 2026? ?

Manifold Markets cote No à 94% au 5 octobre 2026.

Quand Maduro out of custody by EOY 2026? sera-t-il résolu ?

Maduro out of custody by EOY 2026? doit être résolu le 30 décembre 2026.

Manifold MarketsSans KYCDonnées de résolution vérifiéesAssez bien calibré

Prévision communautaire actuelle

Non 94%

Prévisionnistes

Type de question

binary

Méthodologie

Play-money forecasting platform

Type de source

Prévision

Données du marché

Mis à jour il y a 11 heures

Obsolète

3 janv. 26, 19:24 UTC30 déc. 26, 19:23 UTC

Tendances

Résultat24hProbabilité

Règles

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Nicolás Maduro is released from custody by the listed date, 11:59 PM ET.

Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
If Nicolás Maduro is released but remains under house arrest, the market will still resolve to "Yes".
If Nicolás Maduro is released on parole, bond, or any other condition that results in them leaving state custody, the market will resolve to "Yes".
Transporting Nicolás Maduro to another location of custody (e.g., a different prison, court, or hospital within the correctional system) will not suffice to resolve this market to "Yes".
Temporary outings from prison for purposes such as testifying in court or before Congress, while still under the custody of correctional authorities, will not count as a release.