Manifold MarketsSans KYCDonnées de résolution vérifiéesBien calibréPrévision communautaire actuelleNon 56.9%
Prévisionnistes
27
Type de question
binary
Méthodologie
Play-money forecasting platform
Type de source
Prévision
Données du marché
Mis à jour il y a 25 minutes
5 juin 24, 00:58 UTC1 janv. 31, 04:59 UTC
Tendances
Marchés Associés
Questions liées pour le contexte, et non une comparaison de contrats équivalents.
$100B AI training cluster before 2029?
Manifold MarketsChina will submit to voluntary caps on compute used in AI training runs by end of 2030
Manifold Markets100GW AI training run before 2031?
Manifold MarketsWill there be a global pause on the largest AI training runs at any point before AGI?
Manifold MarketsLargest IPO by market cap in 2026?
PolymarketAnthropic IPO Closing Market Cap
PolymarketRègles
In "Situational Awareness: The Decade Ahead", Leopold Aschenbrenner estimates that the largest training clusters will cost over one trillion dollars around 2030.
- Clarifications:
- $1T worth of computers and associated data center infrastructure (e.g. building, cooling, networking; does not include the cost of the power plant)
- Computers must be networked together and training one model.
- They do not need to synchronize weights at each gradient step.
- Value of data centers will be estimated with reasonable depreciation.
