Manifold MarketsSans KYCDonnées de résolution vérifiéesBien calibréPrévision communautaire actuelleNon 67.5%
Prévisionnistes
16
Type de question
binary
Méthodologie
Play-money forecasting platform
Type de source
Prévision
Données du marché
Mis à jour il y a 5 heures
Obsolète10 juin 24, 22:00 UTC1 janv. 31, 04:59 UTC
Tendances
Marchés Associés
Questions liées pour le contexte, et non une comparaison de contrats équivalents.
10GW AI training run before 2029?
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KalshiRègles
In "Situational Awareness: The Decade Ahead", Leopold Aschenbrenner predicts that the largest AI training clusters will consume 100GW of electricity in ~2030.
- This market resolves YES if a training run of a single AI model consumes 100GW+ of power sustained through most of the training run.
- This power cost includes overhead to run the data center, such as cooling.
- This is one of a series of markets on claims made in Leopold Aschenbrenner's Situational Awareness report(s):
- @/Tossup/lasa-will-models-be-able-to-do-the
- @/Tossup/lasa-100b-ai-training-cluster-by-th