Manifold MarketsSans KYCDonnées de résolution vérifiéesBien calibréPrévision communautaire actuelleNon 67.2%
Prévisionnistes
21
Type de question
binary
Méthodologie
Play-money forecasting platform
Type de source
Prévision
Données du marché
Mis à jour il y a 18 heures
Obsolète10 juin 24, 21:58 UTC1 janv. 29, 04:59 UTC
Tendances
Marchés Associés
Questions liées pour le contexte, et non une comparaison de contrats équivalents.
100GW AI training run before 2031?
Manifold Markets1GW AI training run before 2027?
Manifold Markets$100B AI training cluster before 2029?
Manifold MarketsWill a machine learning training run exceed 10^26 FLOP in China before 2029?
Manifold MarketsWho is Dwarkesh's upcoming "biggest guest yet"?
Manifold MarketsBest AI at the end of 2026?
KalshiRègles
In "Situational Awareness: The Decade Ahead", Leopold Aschenbrenner predicts that the largest AI training clusters will consume 10GW of electricity in ~2028.
- This market resolves YES if a training run of a single AI model consumes 10GW+ of power sustained through most of the training run.
- This power cost includes overhead to run the data center, such as cooling.
- This is one of a series of markets on claims made in Leopold Aschenbrenner's Situational Awareness report(s):
- @/Tossup/lasa-will-models-be-able-to-do-the
- @/Tossup/lasa-100b-ai-training-cluster-by-th
