Manifold MarketsSans KYCDonnées de résolution vérifiéesAssez bien calibréPrévision communautaire actuelleOui 73.7%
Prévisionnistes
29
Type de question
binary
Méthodologie
Play-money forecasting platform
Type de source
Prévision
Données du marché
Mis à jour il y a 5 heures
Obsolète24 juin 24, 21:42 UTC1 juil. 27, 21:59 UTC
Tendances
Marchés Associés
Questions liées pour le contexte, et non une comparaison de contrats équivalents.
Will the LMSYS Chatbot Arena still be 'a thing' in 2027, under the same evaluation method?
Manifold MarketsWho will ever rank #1 in LMSYS Chatbot Arena Text Leaderboard in 2026?
Manifold MarketsWho will ever rank Top 10 in LMSYS Chatbot Arena Text Leaderboard in 2026?
Manifold MarketsWill a Russian-developed LLM reach the top 100 on LMSYS Chatbot Arena by end of 2026?
Manifold MarketsWhich company's AI will first hit 1550 on Chatbot Arena in 2026?
PolymarketOpenAI announces bankruptcy by which date?
PolymarketRègles
LLMs can distinguish their own output from the output of different LLMs and they have a preference for their own output, so it's technically feasible to manipulate the leaderboard by throwing an LLM at the chatbot arena to upvote its own completions.
- Has this happened yet? Will it happen soon?
- Resolves NO iff, before 2027/7/1, credible media reports state that the lmsys leaderboard has been manipulated with sockpuppet accounts / fraudulent voting.
- A statement coming directly from lmsys would also count.
- Resolves YES otherwise.
