Manifold MarketsSans KYCDonnées de résolution vérifiéesAssez bien calibréPrévision communautaire actuelleNon 94.7%
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45
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binary
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Play-money forecasting platform
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Données du marché
Mis à jour il y a 14 heures
Obsolète11 mars 26, 18:04 UTC31 déc. 26, 17:21 UTC
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Questions liées pour le contexte, et non une comparaison de contrats équivalents.
Mojtaba Khamenei public appearance by which date?
PolymarketTrump meets with Ayatollah Mojtaba Khamenei by which date?
PolymarketWill Mojtaba Khamenei leave Iran by which date?
PolymarketWill Mojtaba Khamenei be alive on Jan 1, 2027?
Manifold MarketsWill Mojtaba Khamenei be Iran’s supreme leader on 1 January 2027?
Manifold MarketsWill Mojtaba Khamenei be killed by US/Israeli forces in 2026?
Manifold MarketsRègles
Somewhat more of a speculative market, but something I've been thinking about over the past day.
- Iranian sources have confirmed that Mojtaba was in the compound and was injured when it was struck by Israel, possibly seriously enough that he required hospitalization (https://www.theguardian.com/world/2026/mar/11/mojtaba-khamenei-was-hurt-in-strike-that-killed-his-father-irans-cyprus-ambassador-confirms).
- As far as I am aware no one else is known to have survived the strike, and it seems unlikely Israel would strike their highest priority target in a way that would be likely to leave survivors somewhere on the compound.
- Since his election as Supreme Leader, Mojtaba has not been seen or given any statements.
- The explanation that has been given is that he is in hiding, which is reasonable enough.
- However one might expect that he would make some kind of statement and appearance to rally his supporters if he was in any condition to do so, even if pre-recorded to avoid giving away clues to his location.
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Questions fréquentes
- Quelles sont les probabilités actuelles pour Is Mojtaba Khamenei already dead? ?
- Manifold Markets cote No à 95% au 8 septembre 2026.
- Quand Is Mojtaba Khamenei already dead? sera-t-il résolu ?
- Is Mojtaba Khamenei already dead? doit être résolu le 31 décembre 2026.
- Comment Is Mojtaba Khamenei already dead? est-il réglé ?
- Manifold Markets règle ce marché comme suit : Somewhat more of a speculative market, but something I've been thinking about over the past day.