Manifold MarketsSans KYCDonnées de résolution vérifiéesBien calibréPrévision communautaire actuelleNon 94.7%
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Mis à jour il y a 4 heures
Obsolète11 mars 26, 18:04 UTC31 déc. 26, 17:21 UTC
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Questions liées pour le contexte, et non une comparaison de contrats équivalents.
Will Mojtaba Khamenei leave Iran by which date?
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Manifold MarketsWill Trump talk to Mojtaba Khamenei?
KalshiWill Mojtaba Khamenei be alive on Jan 1, 2027?
Manifold MarketsWhen Iran’s new Supreme Leader (Mojtaba Khamenei) dies or steps down, who will be the next next Supreme Leader?
Manifold MarketsRègles
Somewhat more of a speculative market, but something I've been thinking about over the past day.
- Iranian sources have confirmed that Mojtaba was in the compound and was injured when it was struck by Israel, possibly seriously enough that he required hospitalization (https://www.theguardian.com/world/2026/mar/11/mojtaba-khamenei-was-hurt-in-strike-that-killed-his-father-irans-cyprus-ambassador-confirms).
- As far as I am aware no one else is known to have survived the strike, and it seems unlikely Israel would strike their highest priority target in a way that would be likely to leave survivors somewhere on the compound.
- Since his election as Supreme Leader, Mojtaba has not been seen or given any statements.
- The explanation that has been given is that he is in hiding, which is reasonable enough.
- However one might expect that he would make some kind of statement and appearance to rally his supporters if he was in any condition to do so, even if pre-recorded to avoid giving away clues to his location.