Manifold MarketsSans KYCDonnées de résolution vérifiéesAssez bien calibréPrévision communautaire actuelleOui 93.9%
Prévisionnistes
9
Type de question
binary
Méthodologie
Play-money forecasting platform
Type de source
Prévision
Données du marché
Mis à jour il y a 20 minutes
14 juin 23, 01:38 UTC11 oct. 90, 06:59 UTC
Tendances
Règles
Resolve to scientific consensus whenever that is reached.
- Will resolve conservatively (i.e. lean towards leaving it open for another year).
- Note that, from trevorklee, "More importantly, however, we don’t know the rest of the factors that contribute to MS. 90% of adults in the US have had EBV, while only 0.3% of adults have MS.
- There must be other factors that make those 0.3% get MS while the other 89.7% do not, but it’s unclear what they are."
- so this resolves YES if EBV causes the risk of getting MS if you have had EBV to be much higher than without EBV and NO otherwise
- https://www.science.org/doi/10.1126/science.abj8222
