En 2028, une IA sera-t-elle capable de jouer à des jeux vidéo sélectionnés aléatoirement au niveau humain, avec la possibilité de s'entraîner par auto-apprentissage ?
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Mis à jour il y a 11 heures
Obsolète20 févr. 23, 22:42 UTC2 janv. 28, 07:59 UTC
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Questions liées pour le contexte, et non une comparaison de contrats équivalents.
In 2028, will an AI be able to play randomly selected computer games at human level without getting to practice?
Manifold MarketsIn 2028, will a commercial AI be able to play almost all computer games at human level with zero-shot computer use?
Manifold MarketsIn 2028, will an AI be able to generate equivalent to ~=200 man years of effort towards a software 1.0 given a prompt?
Manifold MarketsIn early 2028, will an AI be able to generate a full high-quality movie to a prompt?
Manifold MarketsBest AI at the end of 2026?
KalshiAnthropic IPO Closing Market Cap
PolymarketRègles
Resolves positively if there is an AI can learn to play randomly selected computer games (shooters, strategy games, flight simulators, etc) at the level of an amateur but not completely incompetent human player, given only a small amount of time (days, not years) for its programmers to connect it properly, and the opportunity to practice for arbitrary (but achievable) amounts of time.
- I will resolve this positively if the AI succeeds more than half the time.
- It's okay if it also has a few games it just can't learn.