If Trump unambiguously causes a recession during his term, will it affect his popularity among the MAGAs?
ÉconomieOne-OffPolitique américaine2a
Manifold MarketsSans KYCDonnées de résolution vérifiéesAssez bien calibréPrévision communautaire actuelleNon 60.7%
Prévisionnistes
30
Type de question
binary
Méthodologie
Play-money forecasting platform
Type de source
Prévision
Données du marché
Mis à jour il y a 48 minutes
En retard3 avr. 25, 12:51 UTC20 janv. 29, 23:59 UTC
Tendances
Actifs Sensibles au Macro
Règles
Resolution Criteria
- The market resolves YES if:
- Trump's popularity among MAGA Republicans drops after a recession AND it is a matter of mainstream consensus that this popularity drops was caused by the recession (or expectation of a recession).
- Note that this question is specific to MAGA Republicans, not the electorate in general.
- We will measure this by looking at if there is a significant drop in the number of people who strongly support Trump.
- The market resolves N/A if:
