If the US unemployment reaches 20% will it reach 80% within 2 years? (AI take-off)
ÉconomieCustomIAMacro et économie13a
Manifold MarketsSans KYCDonnées de résolution vérifiéesBien calibréPrévision communautaire actuelleNon 86.9%
Prévisionnistes
18
Type de question
binary
Méthodologie
Play-money forecasting platform
Type de source
Prévision
Données du marché
Mis à jour il y a 11 heures
Obsolète16 janv. 25, 13:52 UTC1 janv. 40, 22:59 UTC
Tendances
Règles
This is a question related to fast(hard) or slow(soft) AGI takeoff as well as the chance of economic disasters causing unemployment above 20%.
- The question will be resolved based on the U-3 unemployment rate.
- In the case of fast or semi-fast AI takeoff I would assume that this would cause unemployment to shoot up rapidly reaching 80% within 2 years.
- Note that if there is some economic disaster (similar to COVID) which leads to a U-3 rate above 20% before AI take-off (and the U-3 rate does not grow to 80% within 2 years) this question will resolve NO, so take that into account in your predictions.
- The question resolves YES if the U-3 unemployment rate reaches 80% within 2 years of it reaching 20% for the FIRST time.
- If the U-3 rate reaches 20% and does not cross 80% within 2 years the question will resolve NO.
