Manifold MarketsFerméSans KYCDonnées de résolution vérifiéesAssez bien calibréCe marché s'est résolu: Yes (14.3%)
Résolu: 19 août 2026, 02:37
Résolution vérifiée par le fournisseur
CoinRithm dispose d'éléments du fournisseur pour le gagnant et l'heure de règlement de ce marché.
Prévision communautaire actuelleNon 85.7%
Prévisionnistes
41
Type de question
binary
Méthodologie
Play-money forecasting platform
Type de source
Prévision
Données du marché
Mis à jour hier
Obsolète26 avr. 26, 5:2219 août 26, 2:37
Chronologie des Probabilités
Yes14.3%
No85.7%
85.7%
14.3%
Règles
I remember on a recent podcast, I heard someone say "everyone will realize they're now living in the future when they start seeing robots walking past them in a few more months"
- This market resolves YES if I'm walking around and a humanoid robot casually crosses my path.
- Little sweeper robots are not enough, nor are the slightly more human looking ones at sushi restaurants
- I will not purposely seek one out, and I will not bet on this market
- Update 2026-04-25 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): The creator does travel and plans to visit Las Vegas and other Tier 1 cities within the year, increasing the chances of encountering a humanoid robot.
- Update 2026-04-27 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): A humanoid robot must be able to move its arms to do things (not just a mannequin on wheels).
Marchés ouverts
AI
KALSHIWhen will Anthropic officially announce an IPO?
- Before Feb 1, 2027+7.0pt96%
- Before Mar 1, 2027+1.0pt93%
- Before Apr 1, 2027-1.0pt92%
+7 résultats de plus
- Volume total
- 1,3 M €
- Volume 24h
- 255,6 k €
GEMINIBTC price on August 21
- $72,500 or above97.5%
- $73,000 or above97%
- $73,500 or above97%
+36 résultats de plus
- Volume total
- 143,6 k €
- Volume 24h
- 130,5 k €
POLYMARKETAnthropic IPO by __?
- December 31,+2.0pt89%
- October 31,+8.5pt82%
- October 15,-3.5pt50%
+4 résultats de plus
POLYMARKETWill Anthropic’s valuation hit __ by December 31?
- ↑$1.1T+3.6pt100%
- ↑$1.0T+2.4pt100%
- ↑$1.25T-0.9pt97%
+10 résultats de plus
POLYMARKETBest Chinese AI Company end of August?
- Alibaba-1.0pt95%
- Company A50%
- Other50%
+22 résultats de plus
- Volume total
KALSHIBest AI at the end of 2026?
- Claude+4.6pt68.6%
- Grok-2.1pt10.5%
- ChatGPT-2.8pt9.5%
+5 résultats de plus
- Volume total
- 7,8 M €
- Best AI this week
- Next Mythos-Class Model released by which date?
- OpenAI’s Astra released by which date?
- In which month will Anthropic IPO?
- Which company has best AI model end of 2026?
- BMW Championship Winner
- XRP price on August 21
- XRP price on August 31
- Largest IPO by market cap in 2026?
- BTC price on August 31
- Time's Person of the Year for 2026
Questions fréquentes
- Quelles sont les probabilités actuelles pour Humanoid robot walking around me within a year? ?
- Manifold Markets cote No à 86% au 19 août 2026.
- Quand Humanoid robot walking around me within a year? sera-t-il résolu ?
- Humanoid robot walking around me within a year? doit être résolu le 19 août 2026.
- Comment Humanoid robot walking around me within a year? est-il réglé ?
- Manifold Markets règle ce marché comme suit : I remember on a recent podcast, I heard someone say "everyone will realize they're now living in the future when they start seeing robots walking past them in a few more months"