Manifold MarketsSans KYCDonnées de résolution vérifiéesAssez bien calibréPrévision communautaire actuelleNon 95.5%
Prévisionnistes
24
Type de question
binary
Méthodologie
Play-money forecasting platform
Type de source
Prévision
Données du marché
Mis à jour il y a 14 heures
Obsolète7 mai 26, 13:32 UTC31 déc. 27, 23:59 UTC
Tendances
Marchés Associés
Questions liées pour le contexte, et non une comparaison de contrats équivalents.
Hantavirus pandemic in 2026?
PolymarketHantavirus pandemic in 2026? [Polymarket]
Manifold MarketsHantavirus pandemic in 2026?
Manifold MarketsHow many tuberculosis cases will be reported in the United States in 2026?
KalshiHow many human H5N1 cases will be reported in the United States in 2026?
KalshiHow many gonorrhea cases will be reported in the United States in 2026?
KalshiRègles
Extending Ms ( https://manifold.markets/bagofsprite/hantavirus-pandemic-in-2026-polymar?r=S3Jvbm9zMTc3MA ) 2026 terminating market (mirroring Polymarket (https://polymarket.com/event/hantavirus-pandemic-in-2026) ) to include 2027.
- This market will resolve to "Yes" if the World Health Organization explicitly characterizes Hantavirus, Hantavirus Pulmonary Syndrome (HPS), Hemorrhagic Fever with Renal Syndrome (HFRS), or a Hantavirus-related outbreak as a "pandemic" in an official public communication between market creation and December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET.
- (Twenty Twenty SEVEN) Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
- An explicit characterization includes official WHO statements, reports, press briefings, or publications that clearly describe the outbreak as a "pandemic." A Public Health Emergency of International Concern (PHEIC) alone will not qualify unless it is also described as a pandemic.
- The primary resolution source for this market will be official WHO communications.
- A consensus of credible reporting may also be used.