Elon Musk significantly backs a third party in Midterms?
One-OffPolitique américaineÉlectionPolitiqueTechÉlections de mi-mandat américaines 202611j
Manifold MarketsSans KYCDonnées de résolution vérifiéesAssez bien calibréPrévision communautaire actuelleNon 99%
Prévisionnistes
56
Type de question
binary
Méthodologie
Play-money forecasting platform
Type de source
Prévision
Données du marché
Mis à jour il y a 33 minutes
10 juin 25, 01:00 UTC5 nov. 26, 00:59 UTC
Tendances
Marchés Associés
Questions liées pour le contexte, et non une comparaison de contrats équivalents.
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KalshiRègles
[tweet]Forecasters estimated the probability that Elon Musk would significantly back a third party in the midterm elections to be 27% (range: 10% to 50%).
- This would involve committing significant sums of money (>$100M), making public endorsements comparable to those he made during the 2024 Presidential campaign, or even setting up a third party himself.
- For the purpose of this market, these are considered central examples of the kind of clear backing that would resolve this market positively.