Prévision communautaire actuelle
Non 79.7%
Prévisionnistes
180
Type de question
binary
Méthodologie
Play-money forecasting platform
Type de source
Prévision
Données du marché
Mis à jour il y a 7 minutes
4 mars 26, 03:00 UTC1 janv. 27, 03:50 UTC
Tendances
Marchés Associés
Questions liées pour le contexte, et non une comparaison de contrats équivalents.
Donut Battery powered car delivered by EOY 2030?
Manifold MarketsWhich promised metric will donut battery fail to deliver on.
Manifold MarketsWill ANOTHER millennium prize problem be solved in 2026?
Manifold MarketsWill I deem Donut Lab's solid state battery claims in their video to have been false one year from now?
Manifold MarketsWhich country will be the next to send humans to the Moon?
KalshiWill OpenAI publicly claim a solution to a SECOND Millennium Prize Problem by November 30, 2026?
Manifold MarketsRègles
(This settles EOY if necessary but we will surely know much sooner)
- Resolution criteria
- The market resolves YES if independent testing confirms the Donut Battery contains less than 0.1% lithium by weight.
- The market resolves NO if testing confirms lithium content at or above 0.1% by weight.
- Resolution will be determined by peer-reviewed analysis, official company disclosure with third-party verification, or independent laboratory testing from credible institutions (e.g., VTT Technical Research Centre, university materials science departments, or certified battery analysis labs).
- Links to testing results and composition data will serve as primary resolution sources.
