Manifold MarketsSans KYCDonnées de résolution vérifiéesAssez bien calibréAlerte qualité des donnéesDonnées source dégradées
Données au 26 oct. 2026, 10:22 UTC · politique pm-quality-4
Prévision communautaire actuelleNon 91.3%
Prévisionnistes
30
Type de question
binary
Méthodologie
Play-money forecasting platform
Type de source
Prévision
Données du marché
Mis à jour il y a 4 heures
Obsolète30 avr. 25, 00:47 UTC26 déc. 35, 01:29 UTC
Tendances
Marchés Associés
Questions liées pour le contexte, et non une comparaison de contrats équivalents.
Knights Templar restored as a personal prelature of the pope during Pope Leo's papacy?
Manifold MarketsIf Donald Trump becomes president again in 2024-2028, will he illegally remain commander-in-chief in 2031?
Manifold MarketsIf Trump becomes president will his administration regulate or ban AR-15 style rifles?
Manifold MarketsIf Trump becomes president, will Florida constitutionalize abortion?
Manifold MarketsWhat countries will Pope Leo visit in 2026?
KalshiWho will the next Pope be?
KalshiRègles
If Donald Trump ever serves as a figure that I personally consider to be a Pope, Antipope, Pseudopope, or Funko Pope, then this market resolves Yes.
- For ambiguous cases, this must be a new role invented explicitly or obviously for Trump; it's not enough to point out that some evangelical church has previousy said they consider him a prophet.
- The role must have a title and Trump must either formally fulfill or verbally accept the title.
- Once accepted, the title need only have one obligation that Trump fulfills before I resolve Yes.
- It can be a special prayer meeting that he attends as Pope, a special hat he gets to wear, or any other symbolic gesture beyond the title itself.
- Or, if Trump ever denounces the catholic church/current Pope while in Avignon, France, this market will imemediately resolve Yes.
