Manifold MarketsSans KYCDonnées de résolution vérifiéesAssez bien calibréPrévision communautaire actuelleNon 91.3%
Prévisionnistes
30
Type de question
binary
Méthodologie
Play-money forecasting platform
Type de source
Prévision
Données du marché
Mis à jour il y a 16 heures
Obsolète30 avr. 25, 00:47 UTC26 déc. 35, 01:29 UTC
Tendances
Marchés Associés
Questions liées pour le contexte, et non une comparaison de contrats équivalents.
If Donald Trump becomes president again in 2024-2028, will he illegally remain commander-in-chief in 2031?
Manifold MarketsIf Trump becomes president will his administration regulate or ban AR-15 style rifles?
Manifold MarketsIf Trump becomes president, will Florida constitutionalize abortion?
Manifold MarketsWho will the next Pope be?
KalshiWhat countries will Pope Leo visit in 2026?
KalshiWill Taylor Swift meet with Pope Leo XIV before 2027?
KalshiRègles
If Donald Trump ever serves as a figure that I personally consider to be a Pope, Antipope, Pseudopope, or Funko Pope, then this market resolves Yes.
- For ambiguous cases, this must be a new role invented explicitly or obviously for Trump; it's not enough to point out that some evangelical church has previousy said they consider him a prophet.
- The role must have a title and Trump must either formally fulfill or verbally accept the title.
- Once accepted, the title need only have one obligation that Trump fulfills before I resolve Yes.
- It can be a special prayer meeting that he attends as Pope, a special hat he gets to wear, or any other symbolic gesture beyond the title itself.
- Or, if Trump ever denounces the catholic church/current Pope while in Avignon, France, this market will imemediately resolve Yes.
Marchés ouverts
US Politics
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POLYMARKET$LAPTOP FDV above ___ one day after launch?
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KALSHIWhich party will win the U.S. House?
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- Democratic Presidential Nominee 2028
- New Hampshire Democratic Senate nominee?
- Clarity Act (H.R.3633) signed into law in 2026?
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- Balance of Power: 2026 Midterms
- Which party will win the House in 2026?
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- Trump out as President by September 30?
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Questions fréquentes
- Quelles sont les probabilités actuelles pour Donald Trump becomes a Pope-like figure? ?
- Manifold Markets cote No à 91% au 8 septembre 2026.
- Quand Donald Trump becomes a Pope-like figure? sera-t-il résolu ?
- Donald Trump becomes a Pope-like figure? doit être résolu le 26 décembre 2035.
- Comment Donald Trump becomes a Pope-like figure? est-il réglé ?
- Manifold Markets règle ce marché comme suit : If Donald Trump ever serves as a figure that I personally consider to be a Pope, Antipope, Pseudopope, or Funko Pope, then this market resolves Yes.