If Trump becomes president, will Florida constitutionalize abortion?
PolitiqueOne-OffPolitique américaineÉlection5j
Manifold MarketsSans KYCDonnées de résolution vérifiéesAssez bien calibréPrévision communautaire actuelleNon 90.1%
Prévisionnistes
15
Type de question
binary
Méthodologie
Play-money forecasting platform
Type de source
Prévision
Données du marché
Mis à jour il y a 55 minutes
En retard2 avr. 24, 02:43 UTC3 nov. 26, 07:59 UTC
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Questions liées pour le contexte, et non une comparaison de contrats équivalents.
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KalshiBalance of Power: 2026 Midterms
PolymarketRègles
the Florida Supreme Court voted to ban abortion, but also cleared a path for a ballot proposition that would guarantee abortion rights in the state constitution.
- According to a recent poll, the ballot proposition has 62% support (it needs 60% to pass).
- The Biden campaign released a memo on the same day (today) characterizing Florida as “winnable” because of political momentum in the state over the abortion issue.
- Meanwhile Trump, who has won Florida in two presidential elections, has said he supports an abortion ban, albeit not as strict as the one currently in effect, but also that he respects states’ rights, and presumably a ballot proposition.
- Market closes just before the 2026 midterms.
- This market resolves NA if Trump doesn’t win.