Contingent on AI being perceived as a threat, will humans deliberately cause an AI winter before 2030?
IAOne-Off3a
Manifold MarketsSans KYCDonnées de résolution vérifiéesBien calibréPrévision communautaire actuelleNon 77.6%
Prévisionnistes
53
Type de question
binary
Méthodologie
Play-money forecasting platform
Type de source
Prévision
Données du marché
Mis à jour il y a 16 heures
Obsolète24 mars 23, 00:48 UTC1 janv. 30, 05:59 UTC
Tendances
Marchés Associés
Questions liées pour le contexte, et non une comparaison de contrats équivalents.
Will humans deliberately cause an AI winter?
Manifold MarketsWill polling show that humans perceive AI as a threat before 2030?
Manifold MarketsWill the US be perceived as more corrupt in 2026 than 2025?
Manifold MarketsIn which year would Zvi confirm that we've entered an "AI winter"?
Manifold MarketsLargest IPO by market cap in 2026?
PolymarketAnthropic IPO Closing Market Cap
PolymarketRègles
Two things must happen for this market to resolve "YES":
- 1) We need three major polls with a > 50% response to some variant of the question "Do you feel AI is a threat to the human race" (not just to jobs).
- We need to see at least one such poll in three different OECD countries, and one of those has to be the United States.
- 2) Humans must then deliberately cause an "AI winter" which causes the rate of AI development to significantly slow.
- This latter part will be resolved somewhat subjectively but I'll do my best to base it on convincing measurable signals.
- It doesn't matter which humans cause the winter or how they go about creating it, just that there's a clear intention of bringing about an AI winter, and that an AI winter actually happens.
