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Mis à jour il y a 16 heures
Obsolète15 mars 23, 14:15 UTC1 janv. 31, 04:59 UTC
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Questions liées pour le contexte, et non une comparaison de contrats équivalents.
Contingent on AI being perceived as a threat, will humans deliberately cause an AI winter before 2030?
Manifold MarketsWill an AI winter happen by 2030?
Manifold MarketsIf an AI winter happens before 2030, what is the most likely reason for it?
Manifold MarketsAre we about to hit another AI winter in 2026?
Manifold MarketsBest AI at the end of 2026?
KalshiWhich company has the best AI model end of October?
PolymarketRègles
Will humans intentionally create a global AI winter, slowing or pausing AI development? This would include government policies, coordination among major AI developers, intentional destruction of resources (legal or illegal), or any other action intended specifically to plateau (or regress) AI development.
- The resolution of this will necessarily be subjective, but significant actions with the intent of pausing AI development happening in conjunction of an apparent pause in increasing AI capabilities of at least 12 months will resolve this YES.