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  1. Marchés de Prédiction
  2. IA
  3. By when will AIs perform at least as well as humans on GAIA?
By when will AIs perform at least as well as humans on GAIA?

By when will AIs perform at least as well as humans on GAIA?

IATechOne-Off9a
Manifold MarketsManifold MarketsSans KYC
Prévision communautaire actuelle
Before 2024-06-01
Before 2024-06-01 0%
En tête parmi 7 options
Prévisionnistes

26

Type de question

multiple choice

Méthodologie

Play-money forecasting platform

Type de source

Prévision

Données du marché

Mis à jour il y a 7 jours

Obsolète
21 févr. 24, 4:362 janv. 36, 7:59

Tendances

Résultat24hProbabilité
Before 2024-06-01
Before 2024-06-01
0%
Before 2025-01-01
Before 2025-01-01
0%

Résultat choisi

Before 2027-01-0192%

Règles

The GAIA benchmark (https://arxiv.org/abs/2311.12983) aims to test for the next level of capability for AI agents.

Manifold Markets
  • Quoting from the paper: "GAIA proposes real-world questions that require a set of fundamental abilities such as reasoning, multi-modality handling, web browsing, and generally tool-use proficiency.
  • GAIA questions are conceptually simple for humans yet challenging for most advanced AIs: we show that human respondents obtain 92% vs. 15% for GPT-4 equipped with plugins."
  • This market will resolve based on when an AI system performs as well or better than humans on all 3 of the different levels of the benchmark.
  • I'll use the numbers from Table 4 in paper: 93.9% on level 1, 91.8% on level 2, and 87.3% on level 3.
  • (I'm using the conjunction of all 3 levels rather than the average to be somewhat conservative about this level being achieved.)

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Actifs dans ces sujets

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Règles

The GAIA benchmark (https://arxiv.org/abs/2311.12983) aims to test for the next level of capability for AI agents.

Manifold Markets
  • Quoting from the paper: "GAIA proposes real-world questions that require a set of fundamental abilities such as reasoning, multi-modality handling, web browsing, and generally tool-use proficiency.
  • GAIA questions are conceptually simple for humans yet challenging for most advanced AIs: we show that human respondents obtain 92% vs. 15% for GPT-4 equipped with plugins."
  • This market will resolve based on when an AI system performs as well or better than humans on all 3 of the different levels of the benchmark.
  • I'll use the numbers from Table 4 in paper: 93.9% on level 1, 91.8% on level 2, and 87.3% on level 3.
  • (I'm using the conjunction of all 3 levels rather than the average to be somewhat conservative about this level being achieved.)