Prévision communautaire actuelle
Before 2035-01-01 97.1%En tête parmi 7 options
Before 2035-01-01 97.1%Prévisionnistes
26
Type de question
multiple choice
Méthodologie
Play-money forecasting platform
Type de source
Prévision
Variation 7j
0.0 pts
Données du marché
Mis à jour il y a 3 heures
Obsolète21 févr. 24, 04:36 UTC2 janv. 36, 07:59 UTC
Tendances
Marchés Associés
Questions liées pour le contexte, et non une comparaison de contrats équivalents.
By 2028, AI can perform as well as the best human entrants in the Putnam competition.
Manifold MarketsBy 2029, AI can provide phone banking services as well as human operators, without annoying customers more than humans?
Manifold MarketsBy 2030, Humanoid Robots can Fold laundry as well and as fast as the median human clothing store employee.
Manifold Markets[Carlini questions] Chance off-the-shelf AI system can play as well as casual player on arbitrary board game given rules
Manifold MarketsBest AI at the end of 2026?
KalshiWhich company has the best AI model end of October?
PolymarketRègles
The GAIA benchmark (https://arxiv.org/abs/2311.12983) aims to test for the next level of capability for AI agents.
- Quoting from the paper: "GAIA proposes real-world questions that require a set of fundamental abilities such as reasoning, multi-modality handling, web browsing, and generally tool-use proficiency.
- GAIA questions are conceptually simple for humans yet challenging for most advanced AIs: we show that human respondents obtain 92% vs. 15% for GPT-4 equipped with plugins."
- This market will resolve based on when an AI system performs as well or better than humans on all 3 of the different levels of the benchmark.
- I'll use the numbers from Table 4 in paper: 93.9% on level 1, 91.8% on level 2, and 87.3% on level 3.
- (I'm using the conjunction of all 3 levels rather than the average to be somewhat conservative about this level being achieved.)