[Carlini questions] Chance off-the-shelf AI system can play as well as casual player on arbitrary board game given rules
One-OffIA3a
Manifold MarketsSans KYCDonnées de résolution vérifiéesBien calibréPrévision communautaire actuelleBy 2030 93.2%
Prévisionnistes
7
Type de question
multiple choice
Méthodologie
Play-money forecasting platform
Type de source
Prévision
Variation 7j
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Données du marché
Mis à jour il y a 13 heures
Obsolète24 mars 25, 01:49 UTC1 janv. 30, 23:59 UTC
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Règles
Full question: "chance that an off-the-shelf AI system can, if provided the rules to an arbitrary turn-based board game, play roughly as well as a casual player of the game"
- Resolution Criteria:
- A "casual player" is defined as someone who has, e.g., played similar games frequently, and has played this game for several hours, but has not played it competitively or studied strategy.
- Think, family game night playing Monopoly.
- I will consider only board games that are typical family-friendly games you might find in a non-specialty store.
- The AI is not allowed to be fine-tuned on this specific game by a human.
