Manifold MarketsSans KYCDonnées de résolution vérifiéesAssez bien calibréPrévision communautaire actuelle
Oui 95.1%
Prévisionnistes
28
Type de question
binary
Méthodologie
Play-money forecasting platform
Type de source
Prévision
Données du marché
Mis à jour il y a 11 heures
Obsolète5 janv. 24, 10:59 UTC12 janv. 28, 08:00 UTC
Tendances
Marchés Associés
Questions liées pour le contexte, et non une comparaison de contrats équivalents.
By when will AIs perform at least as well as humans on GAIA?
Manifold MarketsBy 2029, AI can provide phone banking services as well as human operators, without annoying customers more than humans?
Manifold MarketsBefore 2035, will there exist any AI that can perform arbitrary tasks in Minecraft?
Manifold MarketsBest AI at the end of 2026?
KalshiAnthropic IPO by which date?
PolymarketWhen will Anthropic officially announce an IPO?
KalshiRègles
Perform as well as the best human entrants in the Putnam competition—a math contest whose questions have known solutions, but which are difficult for the best young mathematicians
Marchés ouverts
AIKALSHIBest AI at the end of 2026?
- Claude-3.0pt56.3%
- ChatGPT-3.3pt24.3%
- Grok+2.4pt7.8%
+5 résultats de plus
- Volume total
- 9,2 M €
- Volume 24h
- 102,1 k €
POLYMARKETAnthropic IPO by which date?
- December 31,89%
- December 15,86%
- November 30,-1.0pt84%
+7 résultats de plus
- Volume total
- 2,4 M €
KALSHIWhat will Spotify CEO say during Goldman Sachs Communacopia?
- Anthropic / Claude+62.0pt99%
- Video+55.0pt99%
- Royalty / Licensing+63.0pt99%
+14 résultats de plus
POLYMARKETAI lab announces another Millennium Prize solution by which date?
- 2027-0.5pt62.5%
- 2026-10.0pt25%
- September 30, 2026-4.0pt12.5%
POLYMARKETWill Anthropic’s valuation hit __ by December 31?
- ↑$1.25T+1.3pt100%
- ↑$1.1T+3.6pt100%
- ↑$1.0T+2.4pt100%
+10 résultats de plus
KALSHITencent market share this week
- Above 4.1%+8.0pt99%
- Above 3.7%+1.0pt99%
- Above 2.2%99%
+6 résultats de plus
- Volume total
- 44,4 k €
- Will CMI declare a Millennium Prize Problem solved by which date?
- Best Chinese AI Company end of September?
- Anthropic market share this week
- When will Anthropic officially announce an IPO?
- Which company has best AI model end of 2026?
- OpenAI’s Astra Model: Text Arena Debut?
- What will Macy's say during their next earnings call?
- Anthropic IPO Closing Market Cap
- Gemini 4.0 released by which date?
- Time's Person of the Year for 2026
Questions fréquentes
- Quelles sont les probabilités actuelles pour By 2028, AI can perform as well as the best human entrants in the Putnam competition. ?
- Manifold Markets cote Yes à 95% au 9 septembre 2026.
- Quand By 2028, AI can perform as well as the best human entrants in the Putnam competition. sera-t-il résolu ?
- By 2028, AI can perform as well as the best human entrants in the Putnam competition. doit être résolu le 12 janvier 2028.
- Comment By 2028, AI can perform as well as the best human entrants in the Putnam competition. est-il réglé ?
- Manifold Markets règle ce marché comme suit : Perform as well as the best human entrants in the Putnam competition—a math contest whose questions have known solutions, but which are difficult for the best young mathematicians